Kessler, left, and Ward pose at the final press conference before their showdown Saturday night. (Laura De la Torre Photo)

This should be a fun fight.  I’d recommend catching it.  Here is the rundown.

 

SHOWTIME 10 PM, Saturday, November 21st, 2009 from The Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA

Mikkel Kessler (42-1, 32 KOs) vs. Andre Ward (20-0, 13 KOs)

Weight Class: Super Middleweight (168 Pounds)
Title: Kessler’s WBA Title

The final bout of the first round of SHOWTIME’s super six super middleweight world boxing classic tournament features WBA super middleweight titlist Mikkel Kessler defending his title against 2004 Olympic gold medalist Andre Ward.  The first two bouts in the opening round saw Arthur Abraham knockout Jermain Taylor in 12 rounds and Carl Froch score a controversial decision win over Andre Dirrell.  After those two bouts were fought overseas, we travel to Oakland, California to close out the first round.

This is an interesting stylistic bout to me.  Andre Ward brings speed and movement to the ring.  He can fight effectively both as a righty or a southpaw.  Meanwhile, Kessler is a straight forward fighter.  He works behind a great jab and follows it up with a powerful right hand.  The question here is who can implement their strategy the best.  Kessler struggles with fighters who move so it will be crucial that he makes adjustments to properly cut off the ring.  If not, he will be chasing Ward all night.  As for Ward, can he keep his activity level high enough so that he is boxing as opposed to running?  His chin has been a question mark.  The better he takes the Kessler power, the less he will run and the more he will box. 

In the end, I like Ward to pull the upset.  I suspect this bout is going to be a bit of a chess match.  Kessler will be stalking Ward all night.  Ward will be looking to move laterally to keep Kessler off balance.  Wards’ speed will allow him to get in, land, and get out.  Kessler will try to adjust and time Ward with a jab.  I think Kessler is going to struggle with the speed and game plan of Ward.  Injured or not, Kessler did not like the activity and speed of Joe Calzaghe.  Even though he is not as skilled as Calzaghe at this time, I can see Ward causing Kessler similar problems, but with more footwork and less flurries.  I just don’t have confidence in Kessler’s ability to cut off the ring.

This will be a close bout.  When Ward rests or gets caught in the corner or along the ropes, Kessler will go to work.  However, I think Ward’s game plan will frustrate Kessler.  Add in the fact that Ward is at home and I think some of the closer rounds will go his way.  Yes, two of the judges are foreign, but I still would not be surprised to see the benefit of the doubt go to Ward in a few close rounds.  So here is your upset special.  Andrew Ward will upset Mikkel Kessler for the WBA title by a close decision

Prediction: Ward 115-113 


Quick Hits

Lakers PF Pau Gasol made played his first game of the year against the Chicago Bulls last night.  At halftime, Bulls’ coach Vinny Del Negro joked that he wished Gasol had waited one more game.  Maybe he was not joking after all.  Gasol ended the game with 24 points and 13 rebounds.

The Jazz snapped a 20 game losing streak (23 including playoffs) when traveling to San Antonio with a 90-83 win over the Spurs last night.  Considering Spurs’ Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili did not play, the Jazz better have snapped that streak.

This week’s Thursday night NFL game was much better than last week’s offering.  The Dolphins upended the Panthers in a fairly entertaining game 24-17.

Ricky Williams allowed Dolphins’ fans to forget about the Ronnie Brown injury for one night.  He ran for 119 yards and two TDs.  He also caught a TD pass too.

Fight Predictions

Here are the rest of this week’s fight predictions.

My record:
Overall........702-175
This Year.....202-59
Last Week……..2-2

Non-Televised, Saturday, November 21st, 2009 from The Sparkasse Arena, Kiel, Germany

Giacobbe Fragomeni (26-1-1, 10 KOs) vs. Zsolt Erdei (30-0, 17 KOs)

Weight Class: Cruiserweight (200 Pounds)
Title: Fragomeni’s WBC Title
Prediction: Erdei 116-112

Non-Televised, Saturday, November 21st, 2009 from The Casino Rama, Ontario, Canada

Marvin Sonsona (14-0, 12 KOs) vs. Alejandro Hernandez (22-7-1, 11 KOs)

Weight Class: Super Flyweight (115 Pounds)
Title: Sonsona’s WBO Title

Prediction: Sonsona KO11

Steve Molitor (30-1, 12 KOs) vs. Jose Saez (17-8-4, 8 KOs)

Weight Class: Super Featherweight (130 Pounds)

Prediction: Molitor KO6

Non-Televised, Saturday, November 21st, 2009 from Tuxtla Gutierrez, Chiapas, Mexico

Edgar Sosa (37-5, 21 KOs) vs. Rodel Mayol (25-4-1, 19 KOs)

Weight Class: Junior Flyweight (108 Pounds)
Title: Sosa’s WBC Title

Prediction: Sosa KO7

Non-Televised, Saturday, November 21st, 2009 from The Club Deportivo Libertad, Sunchales, Argentina

Marcus Maidana (26-1, 25 KOs) vs. William Gonzalez (22-5-1, 7 KOs)

Weight Class: Junior Welterweight (140 Pounds)

Prediction: Maidana KO3

Telemundo 11:35 PM, Friday, November 20th, 2009 from The Civic Center, Kissimmee, FL

Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. (16-0-1, 13 KOs) vs. Genaro Garcia (36-7, 20 KOs)

Weight Class: Super Bantamweight (122 Pounds)

Prediction: Vazquez Jr. 116-112

	Dolphins’ RB Ronnie Brown limps off the field during Sunday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The injury ended up costing Brown is season. (AP Photo)

Whether it affected your team or your fantasy team, the injury bug was biting superstars left and right in week 10.  Here is a list of the big names it got and what you can hope for…

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

As ESPN said, the wildcat may have been declawed.  Brown was placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the season.  Ricky Williams will now see a lion’s share of the carries.  That is not a bad thing considering Williams is quietly having a great season.  Sadly, this probably ends what hopes the Dolphins still had of making the playoffs.  It was a long shot at 4-5 anyway, but with their biggest threat gone for the year it is probably time to start thinking about 2010.

Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Benson left Sunday’s game against the Steelers with a hip injury.  At first the worst was feared, but Benson appears to be okay.  Current reports have the injury being a strained hip flexor.  Benson was expected to play this weekend against the Raiders.  Any significant time missed could be devastating for the AFC North leading Bengals.  Last week, rookie Bernard Scott filled in with a so-so running performance, but did return a kickoff for a touchdown.  The Bengals also picked up former Chiefs’ running back Larry Johnson.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Turner suffered a high ankle sprain when he rolled his ankle against the Carolina Panthers.  While Turner has not ruled himself out, it does not appear that he will play.  Even if he does, Turner will be nowhere near 100%.  Backup Jason Snelling will see a bulk of the carries if Turner can’t go.  If Jerious Norwood is healthy, those carries will be split.  The timing of this injury could not have been worse for Atlanta.  They have lost three of four and, at 5-4, are tied with the Eagles, Giants, and Packers for one of two wild card spots.  Sitting at 4-5 are the Bears, Panthers, and 49ers.  And who is this week’s opponent for the Falcons?  The Giants.  A loss would hurt twice as much.

Brian Westbrook , RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Westbrook received his second concussion since October 26^th in this past weekend’s game against the Chargers.  Originally, he was thought to be lost for the season and possible for his career.  Reports yesterday say he has progressed well and would not rule out a return by the end of the season.  Rookie LeSean McCoy will pick up the slack at running back.  I expect good numbers out of McCoy and I do not think the Eagles will miss as big of a beat as some are expecting.

Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers

Once again, the Steelers have lost the heart and soul of their defense as Polamalu went down with a PCL strain on the same knee which he earlier hurt his MCL.  Initial reports feared that he could be out for the season.  After more tests, it appears the injury is not as bad as once feared.  He is likely out for this week’s game against the Chiefs and may not play in next week’s game against the Ravens.  While it should not affect this week’s game against the Chiefs’ poor offense, the Steelers defense clearly is not the same without their game changer. 

Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens

Suggs suffered a sprained MCL via a chop block from Browns’ QB Brady Quinn during their meeting on Monday Night Football.  The injury is said to be severe.  The Ravens’ hope Suggs can be back in two weeks, but his agent fears the injury may be a season ender.  That is the last thing the Ravens’ defense needs at this point of the season.  They were struggling but seemed to be getting their mojo back.  Their run at a playoff spot just got ten times harder.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ Cinderella run appears to have hit midnight.  After starting 6-0, they have lost three straight.  In the loss to the Redskins, the Broncos lost Orton to an injured left ankle.  Orton has not practiced this week, but thinks he will be able to go on Sunday.  If not, back up Chris Simms will get the nod.  Last week was Simms’ first real action since 2006 when his season ended due to a ruptured spleen.  Either way, the Broncos appear to be in trouble this weekend.  Did I mention division rival San Diego is coming to visit?  The winner will own the lead in the AFC West.  It looks like the Broncos may be bumped from first a lot earlier than they were last year.

Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Jones bruised his lung in last week’s game against the Cardinals and is out for this week’s tilt with the Minnesota Vikings.  Justin Forcett will get the start in Jones’ place.  I don’t expect this to be a big deal for the Seahaks.  Forcett filled in admirably last week, after Jones went down, carrying the ball 17 times for 123 yards on a touchdown.  The concern will be their opponents this week:  The Minnesota Vikings.  The Seahawks travel to the Metrodome where they will see where they will see a tough Vikings’ defense anchored by Pat and Kevin Williams (no relation).

Josh Cribbs, WR/KR, Cleveland Browns

Can anything else go wrong for the Cleveland Browns’ and their fans this year?  As if it wasn’t bad enough to see their team destroyed by trades, general manager moves, and a new coach who simply does not fit, now they appear to have lost the only bright spot on their team in Josh Cribbs.  Cribbs was injured on the last play of a 16-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens when Browns’ coach Eric Mangini decided to call for a series of laterals in a desperate attempt not to be shutout.  Mangini feels Cribbs will be able to play this weekend against the Lions, but he has still not practiced this week yet.

Quick Hits

Did you see the offside and double handball that helped France secure a win and a World Cup birth over Ireland?  It was one shrewd play by France’s Thierry Henry, but if I were an Ireland fan I would be justifiable irate.  Instant replay anyone?

Who is currently the best team in the NBA Eastern Conference?  If you said the 10-2 Atlanta Hawks, you would be correct.  Folks, to my eyes these guys are for real.  They will be challenging deep into the playoffs.  Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston are not going to be happy to see this Hawks club in the Eastern semi-finals.

Antawn Jamison returned to the Wizards’ lineup last night.  He brought with him 31 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal.

Nets alert – They have now fallen to 0-12.  I wonder if John Wall is thinking of staying in Kentucky for an extra year.

	Kansas Jayhawks’ Xavier Henry, left, and teammate Cole Aldrich congratulate one another. (AP Photo)

With the college basketball season getting underway, I figured I would make some predictions on the upcoming season.  How many of these will be correct come March Madness?  Your guess is as good as mine.  If nothing else, college basketball has proven to be one thing: unpredictable.

National Champion: Kansas

The Jayhawks return four starters from last year’s 27-8 sweet sixteen team.  Even scarier is the fact that the Jayhawks’ bench is full of major talent.  There will be no break for opponents when the Jayhawks’ second team is on the floor.  If head coach Bill Self can keep all of these egos in check and keep all of the players focused, the Jayhawks will be cutting down the nets in April.

Final Four: Kansas, Michigan St., California, Purdue

Along with Kansas, I expect Michigan St., California, and Purdue to make the final four.  The Spartans, who return all but two of their key players, were runners-up to national champion North Carolina last year.  They are an experienced team and the healthy return of forward Delvon Roe will add to their talented team.  California was 22-11 last year with a first round exit from the NCAA tournament.  However, Mike Montgomery’s crew returns four senior starters who have another year of experience with his schemes under their belts.  Purdue returns a young team that will feature a fully healed Robbie Hummel (lower back stress fracture).  They made the sweet sixteen last year and I expect them to go all the way to the Final Four this year.

Player of the Year: Willie Warren

Oklahoma sophomore guard Willie Warren can really light it up on the court.  Not only does he have the ability to score at will, he is also the type of player who can strap a team on his back and carry them through portions of a season.  I think he will edge out Kansas’ Sherron Collins and Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody for the award.

Freshman of the Year: John Wall

Kentucky point guard John Wall figures to have the best freshman season of any player this year.  He is a likely one and done candidate who can score from anywhere on the court, has good passing skills, and will love the up tempo attack that John Calipari’s offense brings.

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens

Stevens is the head coach of the Butler Bulldogs.  I think the mid major Bulldogs are going to have a great year that could see them reach the elite eight.  If they weather a tough early season schedule and take care of business the rest of the way I expect Stevens to be acknowledged.

Top Ten Team that will Disappoint: Duke

Duke will start the year inside the top ten, but I do not expect them to finish their.  Coach K recently remarked that he does not have a bullpen or a closer like Mariano Rivera.  With no bench, Coach K’s starters will be logging heavy minutes through the grueling ACC schedule.  As the team tires, I expect more and more slip ups and it will be a direct result of a short bench.

Surprise Team: Michigan

This will be head coach John Beilein’s third year at Michigan.  The team has showed great improvement between years one and two and Beilein’s track record suggests that his teams usually have the players they need and make a big move in season three under his tutelage.  Michigan should be ready to turn a few heads this season and make a respectable run in the NCAA tournament.

Team taking a Fall: UCLA

It could get ugly for UCLA this year.  They lost four starters from a team that only made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament last year.  UCLA was credited with having the top recruiting class in 2008, but none of the players short of Jrue Holiday have come close to living up to that billing.  If those players don’t figure it out and quick, UCLA is looking at an NIT birth at best.

First Team All Americans:

Willie Warren, G, Oklahoma

Sherron Collins, G, Kansas

Luke Harangody, F, Notre Dame

Kyle Singler, F, Duke

Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas

Quick Hits

The Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron yesterday after a 3-6 start.  It is not going to help this season, but the Bills’ fans now have something to look forward to next week.

LeBron James thinks he could leave the Cavs and help the Cleveland Browns if he committed himself to football.  That is laughable anyway, but I didn’t know the prince could play multiple positions, head coach, and GM. 

The New Jersey Nets fell to 0-11.  Lawrence Frank has been on the hot seat before, but never like this.  The only question left for Frank is if he remains coach through the weekend.

Don’t look now, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are quietly having a nice start to the season.

Congrats to Zack Greinke on winning the American League Cy Young award.  Well deserved.

	Bill Belichick answers questions after his Patriots lost to the Colts 35-34. (AP Photo)

Sometimes there are too many stories to write about over a weekend.  There was no way I could not devote a blog entry to the Colts-Patriots game on Sunday night.  It was a phenomenal game.  I could write for days on it.  However, I am going to narrow my focus to the topic that has been discussed, argued, debated, and second guessed for the last 24 plus hours.  Specifically, I am talking about Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4^th and 2 from his own 28 yard line with 2:08 remaining in the game while leading 34-28.

As you can tell by the title of this entry, I thought the decision was horrible.  I’ve heard the stat people try and tell me the odds were better that he go for it than not.  I love stats, but I am not hearing this one because I think it is grossly incomplete.  It was 4^th and 2 on the Pats’ own 28 yard line.  Nothing within the statistical calculation can measure the effect of such a decision on momentum, pressure, and confidence. 

You think Peyton Manning and the Colts’ felt more confident starting where they did or if they were 40plus yards further away?  And where would the Pats’ D rather have started?  You can’t tell me the switches in momentum, pressure, and confidence in those scenarios would not have influenced the game and altered the statistical data being presented.

Now, how about that Patriots’ defense?  Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison, both former defensive players for the Patriots, hated the decision.  They hated the message it sent to the defense.  I totally agree.  Belichick showed no confidence in his defense.  He basically said I don’t trust your ability to stop the Colts from driving roughly 70 yards. 

Yes, the defense was tired, but this defense also picked Manning off twice and forced the Colts to punt seven times.  You have to give your defense a chance to win the game for you in this situation.  Not only does the defense lose confidence because Belichick did not have faith in them, they take the double whammy of allowing Manning to drive those final 29 yards for the game winning score.

Supporters of Belichick’s decision also point to previous success against the Colts on fourth down.  Why are people trying to live in the past on this issue?  Everything changes from year to year.  The Colts have a brand new head coach this year.  The Patriots have not necessarily been as explosive offensively as in years past.  Players change, coaches change, strategies change, and scenarios change.  I am pretty sure all of the past 4^th down success was never under similar situations to the one presented in this game.

Belichick’s decision will be discussed for a long time, but what should not be lost are the other effects from the decision.  The Pats are now in a fight to get a first round bye in the playoffs, it could take a while for their defense to regain its’ confidence, the team will hear endless questions about the call this week, and the team just may have lost a shred of confidence in their head coach.  The repercussions of this decision could follow the Patriots for the rest of the season.

Quick Hits

Tennessee Titan’s owner Bud Adams decided to make obscene gestures towards Buffalo Bills’ fans in the aftermath of 41-17 victory.  I hope he enjoyed it because I am pretty sure he did not get his money’s worth.  The NFL fined Adams $250,000 for the incident.

Then Golden St. Warrior Stephen Jackson was upset with the team and coach and wanted out in the worst way.  Yesterday, he was traded to the Charlotte Bobcats.  I’d say be careful what you wish for, but I like this situation for Jackson.  I think he will thrive.

Speaking of disgruntled NBA players, the Grizzlies waived Allen Iverson yesterday.  A possible destination could be those Charlotte Bobcats where he would reunite with Coach Larry Brown.  If the Bobcats added Iverson, along with Jackson, they could challenge for a playoff spot in the East.

ESPN Monday Night Football analyst Jon Gruden signed a contract extension to continue with the program.  As of now, there were no specifics on the extension except to say that it was multiyear.  I can live with this.  Now if we could only trade out Ron Jaworski for someone else, I’d be happy.

So week 10 of the NFL season started with that ugly 49ers-Bears game and ended with the Cleveland Browns on Monday night.  I’m sure this is not what the NFL had in mind when the schedule was released.  At least they had the Colts-Patriots game sandwiched in between.

Running through today, ESPN has a 24 hour college hoops tip off marathon.  It is a cool idea, but I know I am glad I do not play for Monmouth or St. Peters.  Their game tips off at 6 am.  It is hard enough to start a game at 6 am, but the players have to report much earlier for pre-game shoot around, meetings with coaches, and preparation with trainers.  Add in waking up and getting to the gym and we are probably talking a 3 am start to the day.  I’ll stay in bed.

	Manny Pacquiao gets ready to celebrate after Referee Kenny Bayless stops the contest in round 12. (AP Photo)

Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2, 38 KOs) stopped Miguel Cotto (34-2, 27 KOs) 55 seconds into the 12^th round to win the WBO welterweight title Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The bout started off on even terms with both fighters going the cautious route.  Cotto worked his jab early as Pacquiao tested the titlist’s power and timing.  Cotto would be knocked down in round three on more of a balance shot or a slip than from actually being hurt.  Cotto would bounce back to win most of round 4 until…

Boom! 

A big left hand from the southpaw challenger dropped Cotto with time running out in the round.  That knockdown definitely hurt Cotto and turned the bout from an even contest to a one-sided affair.  Cotto had a few moments, but they mainly came while Pacquiao appeared to be resting.  As the bout progressed, Pacquiao continued to use his speed and unorthodox punching angles to pound Cotto.  The jab was the only punch Cotto could use to keep Pacquiao at bay, but it was non-existent for long portions of the bout.

Cotto was game as he continued to fight a losing battle.  In the 12^th round, referee Kenny Bayless was looking for the first serious punch to land so he could call an end to the bout and save Cotto from himself.  That punch came 55 seconds into the 12^th round as Cotto found himself against the ropes with Pacquiao loading up to inflict more damage.

So, what did this bout tell me?  It told me a few things. 

First, I don’t think I would favor any fighter at 147 pounds or below over Pacquiao short of Paul Williams.  Take Williams out of the equation and Pacquiao has proven he has the speed, power, and game plans to beat anyone below 147 pounds.

Second, Pacquiao seems stronger than ever.  He has now stopped Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, and Miguel Cotto in his last three bouts.  It was not long ago that he was taken the distance twice by Juan Manual Marquez and once each by Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Oscar Larios.

Third, Miguel Cotto is not the fighter he was prior to his bout with Antonio Margarito.  This goes without saying.  Margarito likely fought Cotto with plaster of Paris on his hands.  He did not knockdown Cotto or hurt him until late in the fight.  Freddie Roach did say Cotto was damaged goods entering this bout and he was right.  That is not to say Pacquiao still does not beat Cotto.

Fourth, Cotto needs a proper trainer if he is going to continue with his career.  He parted ways with his former trainer and Uncle Evangelista Cotto prior to the Joshua Clottey bout this past June.  It may not have made a difference, but there was no solid advice coming out of the Cotto corner in between rounds.  Everyone was talking and none of the talk was fight strategy.

Finally, this bout told me that anyone who thinks they can guarantee a winner in a potential Pacquiao showdown with Floyd Mayweather Jr. is not telling the truth. The Mayweather fight would be very interesting and I could see that going a number of ways.  If/when that bout is signed I will discuss it more, but I do know I would not feel comfortable tabbing either guy as the favorite in that one.

Quick Hits

Unfortunately, I was correct on the excitement level of the undercard for the Cotto-Pacquiao PPV.  It was horrible.  On the bright side, I’m sure it did help some insomniacs out there.

Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4^th and 2 from his own 28 will be second guessed for a long time.  Why make it any easier for Peyton Manning than it has to be?  Nonetheless, that was a great game.  A potential instant classic if you will.

It was a weekend of upsets in the NFL.  I don’t know about you, but I was surprised to see the Jags beat the Jets, the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Skins beat the Broncos, and the Panthers beat the Falcons.  That’s why they play the game.

On Saturday night, Bucks rookie point guard Brandon Jennings torched the Warriors with 55 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds.  I don’t know if Jennings would have been this good if he went to college for a year or if his experience in Europe helped that much, but he is balling.  He is a great story of the early season.

I really wish there was a playoff in college football.  I may be in the minority, but I think the best team in the state of Texas just might be TCU and not the University of Texas.

Fight Results

Saturday from Las Vegas, Nevada

Middleweight (160 Pounds)

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD10 Troy Rowland

(99-91, 98-92, 97-93)

(I scored it 97-93 Chavez)

Junior Middleweight (154 Pounds)

Yuri Foreman UD12 Daniel Santos

(116-110, 117-109, 117-109)

Foreman wins WBA Junior Middleweight Title

(I scored it 115-111 Foreman)

Welterweight (147 Pounds)

Alfonso Gomez TD6 Jesus Soto-Karass

(58-54, 57-55, 57-55)

(I scored it 58-54 Gomez)

	Fight Poster for the Manny Pacquiao (R) and Miguel Cotto (L) bout. (Top Rank Photo).

Live, Saturday Night from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas Nevada WBO welterweight titlist Miguel Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) will defend his title against recognized undisputed junior welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs).  The bout yields two of boxing’s best in one of the most anticipated fights of the year.  Making a prediction on this fight is not easy.

This bout will produce an interesting clash of styles.  Miguel Cotto is a technical fighter.  He works behind a jab and loves to rip hooks to the body.  Cotto will also be the bigger fighter in this bout.  Meanwhile, Pacquiao is the faster, quicker, more explosive fighter.  The most important question is which fighter will be able to impose their will early.

The answer, unfortunately, is not easy to come by.  In July of 2008, Miguel Cotto suffered the only loss of his career in a bout against Antonio Margarito.  It was later revealed that Margarito tried to use plaster in his hand wraps against Shane Mosley.  It is quite possible that Margarito’s gloves were loaded when he faced Cotto.  Cotto received a gruesome beating from round 7 until the bout was stopped in the 11th.  Sadly, to my eyes, he does not appear to be the same fighter he was before the Margarito fight.  Due to this, a bout I would have given an edge to Cotto in is now an even fight to me.

Pacquiao will enter the bout as a pretty large favorite.  That surprises me.   Yes, I do not think Cotto is the fighter he once was, but I do not see him as a big underdog either.  I think too much is being made out of Pacquiao’s wins over Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton.  Both of those fighters were not only faded, but they were the perfect stylistic matchups for Pacquiao.  Even if faded, Cotto’s style will be more difficult for Pacquiao than that of De La Hoya or Hatton.

So, how will this fight play out?  I think both fighters will come out cautiously to start.  I know Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach wants his charge to attack from the opening bell, but I think that may be all talk.  Pacquiao needs to take it slow and adjust to the style and size of Cotto.  Pacquiao did that in the De La Hoya bout and I think he will follow a similar pattern here.  Cotto should also take it easy early.  If he goes for two much early, a quick Pacquiao counter could hit him.  Zab Judah tagged Cotto early from the southpaw stance in their bout.  It stunned Cotto and had him in early trouble.

After both fighters settle into the bout, I expect Pacquiao to use his feet.  He will want to dart in, land a couple of jabs or a quick combo, and move out.  Pacquiao will want to circle in the center of the ring and avoid the ropes at all costs.  Meanwhile, Cotto will look to work the body and slow the legs of Pacquiao.  Cotto will use his jab to try and time Pacquiao’s leaps inside.  Cotto wants this bout on the ropes or in the corners.  Once he has Pacquiao trapped, he can rip to the body more successfully.

I think both fighters will have their moments early.  In the end, I think Pacquiao’s speed mixed in with the effects of the Margarito bout will be too much for Cotto to overcome.  Cotto simply is not the same fighter and I do not think he will ever fully recover from the Margarito bout.  Pacquiao will use his speed and stamina advantages to outwork Cotto over the second half of the bout.  I like Cotto to make the final bell.  He has a big heart.

With all that being said, there are danger areas for Pacquiao.  If he tastes Cotto’s power and does not like it or gets hurt early, it could be a long night.  Also, if Cotto no longer shows any ill effects from the Margarito bout, Pacquiao could be in trouble.  The old Cotto was a tenacious stalker who would walk his opponents down and inflict pain.  That Cotto would have made for an even more intriguing bout.  Sadly I do not think we see him.  I am taking Pacquiao by a comfortable decision.

 
Prediction: Pacquiao 116-112

Here are the rest of this weekend’s fight predictions.

My record:
Overall........700-173
This Year.....200-57
Last Week……..8-1

HBO PPV 9 PM, Saturday, November 14^th, 2009 from The MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV

Daniel Santos (32-3-1, 23 KOs) vs. Yuri Foreman (27-0, 8 KOs)

Weight Class: Junior Middleweight (154 Pounds)
Title: Santos’ WBA Title
Prediction: Santos 117-111

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (40-0-1, 30 KOs) vs. Troy Rowland (25-2, 7 KOs)

Weight Class: Middleweight (160 Pounds)
Prediction: Chavez Jr. KO3

Alfonso Gomez (20-4-2, 10 KOs) vs. Jesus Soto Karass (24-3-3, 16 KOs)

Weight Class: Welterweight (147 Pounds)
Prediction: Soto Karass 96-94

Quick Hits

After a 3-6 start, The New Orleans Hornets fired head coach Byron Scott.  GM Jeff Bower will replace Scott.  Former Bulls coach Tim Floyd was hired as Bower’s top assistant.  Scott is a great coach.  Bower blew this team up and is now being rewarded for it.  I have no idea why Tim Floyd was brought in.  He is nowhere near the same league as Byron Scott.  I am sure Scott will land on his feet somewhere soon.  Sadly, I cannot say the same for the Hornets.

On ESPN’s Around the Horn, Jay Mariotti confidently proclaimed that 49ers running back Frank Gore would run for 200 yards against the Bears.  What was Frank Gores line?  He had 25 carries for 104 yards and a TD.  He did not have the monster game, but he ended up being the offensive difference.  Jay Cutler’s 5 interceptions helped too.

That sound you heard was 49ers’ tight end Vernon Davis breathing a sigh of relief when Michael Lewis picked off Jay Cutler in the end zone as time expired. 

I was not a fan of the NFL Network camera views for the 49ers-Bears game.  Maybe I am just used to the other networks views, but the ones on the NFL Network seemed to be closer up and at a sharper angle.  I wasn’t a fan.

Dwyane Wade’s posterizing slam on Anderson Varejao was easily the best dunk of the year so far in the young NBA season.  Wow!

	Fight Poster for the Manny Pacquiao (R) and Miguel Cotto (L) bout. (Top Rank Photo).

On Saturday Night, WBO welterweight titlist Miguel Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) will defend his title against recognized undisputed junior welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs).  The bout will be fought at a catch weight of 145 pounds.  The fight will take place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada and will be televised by HBO Pay Per View at a cost of $54.95.

When I make a recommendation if someone should purchase a fight, I take all kinds of factors into account including star power, style match up, importance of the bout, and strength of the undercard.  Of course, this is all done from pre-fight notions.  Sometimes everything goes as expected and sometimes it doesn’t.  It is not a perfect science.

This bout definitely has star power.  Both Pacquiao and Cotto are big names in the boxing world.  Pacquiao is not only a superstar in boxing, but also back at his home in the Philippines.  Cotto is a bona fide star not only in Puerto Rico, but also in the United States. 

The style match up in this bout is interesting as well.  Pacquiao is the faster, quicker fighter.  He fights from the southpaw stance, is extremely explosive, and loves to mix it up.  Meanwhile, Cotto is the bigger, harder hitting fighter.  He attacks the body with vicious consequences and is not afraid to mix it up either.

Floyd Mayweather Jr.  Yes, you have heard of him and he is the reason this bout is so important.  The winner is likely to be headed for a showdown with the man considered one of the best boxers in the ring today.  Mayweather is now a crossover star and the biggest moneymaker in boxing.  Also, a win for Pacquiao would win him yet another title in a different weight class.  A win for Cotto would be one of the biggest of his career.

How about the undercard?  Yikes, it is ugly.  The Floyd Mayweather Jr. – Juan Manuel Marquez PPV in September had an awesome, stacked undercard.  The bout Saturday night has a terrible undercard.  Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is on against an overmatched opponent.  I understand he is on because he draws a unique audience of diehard fans, but this is just not a good match.  Chavez needs to desperately face a live body.  Daniel Santos will be defending his WBA junior middleweight title against Yuri Foreman.  No offense to Yuri, but he may be the most boring boxer on a world class level in the game today.  I can almost guarantee you that this bout will put you to sleep.  The opener on the undercard is a bout between Alfonso Gomez and Jesus Soto Karass.  These guys could trade leather, but the bout serves no purpose.  Neither guy should be anywhere near a title shot unless they are brought in to make a titlist look good.

So, what is my recommendation?  Well, you definitely do not want to miss the main event.  It is going to be great.  However, the undercard is absolutely painful.  My suggestion would be to get some friends together and split the cost of the PPV.  This is the perfect card for a party.  Everyone can chip in for the PPV or bring some food and drinks, and you can socialize through the undercard.  Then everyone can watch the main event for a fraction of the cost of the PPV.

Quick Hits

49ers tight end Vernon Davis said he is “thoroughly unimpressed with the Chicago Bears’ defense.”  I hope for his teammates’ sake they can back up the check the Davis just wrote.

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis stopped WR Chad Ochocinco from his plan to send mustard to the Pittsburgh Steelers prior to their game this Sunday.  For those who did not know, The Steelers’ play their home games at Heinz field.  While Heinz does make mustard, it still was a funny idea to me.  It is hard not to like Ochocinco.

You have to feel for Hornets’ point guard Chris Paul.  He basically has to put up 30 points and 15 assists for his team to have a chance to win a game.

The more commercials I see for The Blind Side, the story of Ravens’ rookie right tackle Michael Oher, the more I want to see it.

	My midseason MVP: Peyton Manning. (AP Photo)

With NFL week 9 in the books, every team has played at least half of their schedule (8 games) so I decided to hand out some midseason awards.  So here is who I think deserves some recognition at the mid way point.

MVP: Peyton Manning

Here is a scary thought for you - Peyton Manning is having the best season of his career.  Yes, Manning is playing at a level he has never played at before.  This year is even better than his then record breaking 2004 season.  He continues to drive the Colts to winning seasons.  Having Manning at quarterback is like having an extra, highly talented, offensive coordinator on your team.  He loses coaches and players and continues to put up awesome stats and notches in the win column.

Offensive Player: Peyton Manning

Indianapolis Colts’ QB Peyton Manning is leading or near the top in all of the important passing categories so far this season.  His 2545 yards passing rank second only behind the Texans’ Matt Schaub.  Manning’s quarterback rating for the season is 105.2.  That is slightly behind the 106 rating being posted by Saints’ QB Drew Brees and Vikings’ QB Brett Favre.  Manning’s 16 TDs ranks second in the league behind Brees and Schaub’s 17 TDs.  Manning is tied for the league lead in completion percentage at 70.6%.  Finally, he has thrown for over 300 yards in seven of his eight games this year.

Defensive Player: Darren Sharper

Safety Darren Sharper is one of the main reasons the New Orleans Saints are undefeated through 8 games this season.  He is tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven.  He has returned three of those picks for touchdowns.  Sharper is also averaging 45.3 return yards per interception.

Offensive Rookie: Percy Harvin

Harvin has had a stellar rookie season thus far.  He has 28 receptions for 369 yards and 3 TDs.  Harvin also has a kick return average of 30.7 yards and has returned two kicks for touchdowns.  His 860 kickoff return yards are tied for best in the NFL.  Harvin is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and his impact on the Vikings has been felt since day 1.

Defensive Rookie: Brian Cushing

Houston Texans OLB Brain Cushing is having a great rookie season.  He is second in the league with 78 tackles.  On top of that, Cushing also has 2 interceptions, 1.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles.  Buffalo CB Jairus Byrd is a close second.

Comeback: Brett Favre

Minnesota Vikings’ QB Brett Favre had a terrible end to the 2008 season.  While quarterbacking the Jets, Favre saw his 8-3 team and the year 9-7.  Favre’s stats plummeted and it looked like his body had made the final decision on his future.  This year, Favre has been superb.  He has thrown for 1925 yards with 16 TDs against only 3 interceptions.

Most Improved: Cedric Benson

I am going out of the box and taking Bengals’ RB Cedric Benson for this award.  His previous career high for rushing yards was 747.  This year, he has already run for 837 yards.  Benson is running like he has a chip on his shoulder and has not looked better at any point during his NFL career.

Breakout player: Miles Austin

Dallas Cowboy WR Miles Austin has been in the NFL since 2005.  He has more receptions thus far this year than he had in his entire career.  Entering the year, Austin had 18 receptions for 354 yards and 3 TDs.  So far this year, Austin has 27 receptions for 612 yards and 7 TDs.

Coach: Marvin Lewis

Bengals’ head coach Marvin Lewis started the year on the hot seat.  Come to think of it, he had been on the hot seat for the last two or three years.  Lewis has shown that he can still reach this group of players and has them playing inspired ball.  To have placed this team as the leaders of the AFC North at midseason is a true accomplishment.

Biggest Surprise Team: Cincinnati Bengals

This award could have gone to the Bengals or the Broncos.  Yes, the Broncos beat the Bengals in week one on that crazy play, but I give it to the Bengals.  They were 4-11-1 last year and figured to be headed towards another terrible year.  The Broncos, despite all the changes and what was thought to be impending doom were an 8-8 team last year and their new quarterback, Kyle Orton, while no Jay Cutler, is a proven NFL winner.

Biggest Disappointing Team: Tennessee Titans

The Titans are the obvious pick here.  Last year, they had the best regular season record of the year at 13-3.  The playoffs did not go as expected for the Titans, but no one figured they would fall so far this year.  They began the year 0-6 and ran off two wins in a row to get to 2-6 at the mid way point.

Best Division: AFC North

This division already sports the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  Add in a very good, division leading Cincinnati Bengals team and a very dangerous 4-4 Baltimore Ravens team and you have the most difficult divisions in the NFL.  Yeah, the Cleveland Browns are there, but every division has a bad team in it this year.

Worst Division: AFC West

When your division has both the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs in it, you expect to “win” this award.  It has been and will continue to be a long year for both of those teams in the AFC West. 

Quick Hits

There was lots of talk yesterday about LeBron James’ comments with respect to winning over money.  I have to agree with ESPN’s Skip Bayless, Jay Crawford, and Doug Stewart when they discussed how James’ comments showed a willingness to take an easier route to a title.  They said you would never hear Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant look to play with a better player to win a title and I agree.

E:60 is a good show, but they really need to change the introduction.  It is way to cheesy.  Even people at ESPN make fun of it. 

Speaking of E:60, they had a piece on the death of boxer Arturo Gatti.  The more I see about his death, the more I think it was a homicide and the less I think it was suicide.

The Legend of Jimmy The Greek was another great installment in ESPN’s 30 for 30 film series.  So far, all of the films in this series have been excellent.  I’m really glad ESPN has decided to run all of these movies.

Best wishes to NBA hall of famer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.  He is being treated for chronic myeloid leukemia.  Abdul-Jabbar says his prognosis is good with treatment.  The six-time NBA MVP won six NBA Championships in his illustrious career.

	The New York Yankees' Logo.

Last week, the New York Yankees won the 2009 World Series four games to two over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Naturally, the complaints began about the Yankee payroll.  It is easily the highest in baseball and the complaints about the spending ways of the Yankees are well founded.  I am not a fan of how they buy up talent, not even close.  But are they good for baseball?  I’m going to tell you why I think they are good for baseball.

I know what you are thinking – Omar, you don’t like the Yankees’ spending ways and are not a fan of them.  You’ve never liked the way George or Hank Steinbrenner (Hal seems okay) conducted business and some of the players truly annoy you.  So how can you think they are good for baseball?  It is the contributions to baseball they make which are good for the sport.

Have you ever heard someone who does not care about the Yankees?  It is rare.  Most people either love the Yankees or hate them.  This is great for baseball.  Most people will tune into a Yankee game because they have a rooting interest.  I know I enjoy watching important Yankee games in the hopes they lose.  I am not the only one who does that.  I have friends who are Yankee fans and they are die hard supporters.  This dynamic is great for baseball.  The Yankees pull in big ratings because they play a dual role.  They are both the good guy and the bad guy depending on your feelings towards them.

The Yankees and the way they spend money.  That is a main area of contention for many fans.  Yeah, they spend ridiculous amounts and outspend every other team, but this is not necessarily a bad thing.  There is a luxury tax in baseball.  Any team with a total salary payout over a set value ($160 million this year) must pay a luxury tax with the money going to teams with lower payrolls.  There is also revenue sharing.  All 30 teams pay 31% of their local revenues into a pot which is divided evenly among all 30 teams.  The Yankees clearly contribute to these areas more than any other team. 

Yes, it is absolutely true that the Yankees wealth allows them to purchase any players they want at the expense of the rest of the league.  This most certainly hurts baseball.  However, all this strategy had done for the last eight years was get the Yankees into or near the playoffs.  I won't even mention the "success" that all of the spending has brought the other New York team.

Did the Yankees buy a championship?  Yes.  Did they try to do it and fail for the last eight year prior?  Yes.  Will I ever like the Yankees or approve of their ways?  Nope.  Will I continue to complain about their spending ways?  Yup, but that does not necessarily make them bad for baseball.

 
What is bad for baseball is the current set of rules implemented with respect to money.  The way to correct baseball, in my opinion, is to lower the luxury tax threshold, raise the luxury tax, and increase revenue sharing.  That will not be easy to do, but it should be a goal because the current system does not do enough to help teams with lower payrolls.  The answer is not to stop the Yankees from functioning as they are currently.  The other teams need the money the Yankees generate and we all need someone to root for… or against.

Quick Hits

In late October, recognized undisputed middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik cancelled a December 5^th bout against one of the best boxers in the world, Paul Williams, due to a staph infection in a finger on his left hand.  Last night, Pavlik and his managerial team announced Kelly will fighting Miguel Espinosa on December 19^th.  Pavlik, who had cancelled on Williams twice, was clearly afraid to face him.  So now Pavlik will take on a very soft touch in Espinosa.  This was a poor, poor effort by Pavlik and his team.  

Tonight’s ESPN films’ 30 for 30 presentation is The Legend of Jimmy the Greek.  I am interested in seeing this film because I do not know much about Jimmy the Greek.  I have heard of his downfall, but don’t know much about his rise and apparent run at the top.

The Broncos are who we thought they were… before the season began.

Congrats to Syracuse men’s head basketball coach Jim Boeheim on becoming the 8^th division I coach to win 800 games.  I’ve always enjoyed listening to Boeheim talk basketball.  He also seems like the kind of coach I would want to play for.

The New York Knicks are now 1-7.  This is the second year in a row they are essentially tanking their season in the hopes of signing LeBron James to a contract this coming summer.  If they do not land James, it will be the two biggest wasted years in the once proud franchise’s history.  Oh and someone go tell the 0-7 Nets that this is not a competition.  The team with the worst team will not automatically get the services’ of LeBron.

	6’3” David Haye lands a jab to the head of 7’0” Nikolai Valuev during their bout on November 7th. Valuev lost his WBA heavyweight title to Haye by majority decision. (TIMM SCHAMBERGER/AFP/Getty Images)

David Haye (23-1, 21 KOs) scored a majority decision over Nikolai Valuev (50-2, 34 KOs) to win the WBA heavyweight title Saturday night in Nürnberg, Germany.  It was a close bout as the taller Valuev tried to track down the always moving, quicker Haye.  In the end, judge Juan Manuel Garcia Reyes scored the bout a draw at 114-114.  He was overruled by judges Stefano Carozza and Tom Miller who both scored the bout 116-112 for Haye.  I scored the bout 115-113 for Haye.

The decision win for Haye was fairly surprising to me.  I was not sure he could get a fair shake in Valuev’s backyard.  Haye, who was 9 inches shorter and 98 pounds lighter than his 7’0” 314pound opponent, boxed a smart fight.  Using the blueprint developed last December by Evander Holyfield, Haye fought at a distance, using his legs to move laterally while occasionally darting in to land shots. 

I thought Haye controlled the first three rounds of the bout with his movement as Valuev struggled to find a rhythm and land a jab.  Rounds 4 through 6 saw Valuev finally get his jab going.  His jab, along with Haye’s inactivity allowed Valuev to even the bout after six rounds on my card.

The second half of the fight saw Haye begin to effectively counter Valuev, especially with a left hook that was landing upstairs.  Haye also continued to move well and pop the jab into the gut of Valuev to pile up points.  In the 12^th round, Haye connected with a left hook to the head that had Valuev hurt for one of the first times in his career.  Haye briefly tried to finish the Giant, but then backed off to cruise to the bell.

I did not think Haye fought as good a fight as the then 46 year old Holyfield did last December.  Haye landed flashier shots, but he also ate more shots.  He also took rounds off which Holyfield did not do in his fight.  Also, Valuev fought a better fight than he did last December, throwing and landing more punches this time around.  Since Valuev had been the recipient of a huge gift decision against Holyfield, it appeared there was no way Haye would win this fight.  However, the judges did the right thing and called this fight down the middle and Haye brought home the WBA heavyweight title.

Quick Hits

Congrats to Navy for scoring another big win at South Bend.  It is a great story for the Midshipmen who have now won 2 games in 3 years against the Irish after losing 43 straight to them.  The loss may have sealed Charlie Weis’ fate at Notre Dame.  I doubt the Fighting Irish will bring Weis back for the 2010 season.

So much for all that National Title talk for LSU.  While they put forth a good effort, LSU lost to Alabama 24-15.  I thought all the talk was going to be for naught. 

I send props to the judges scoring the Nikolay Valuev – David Haye and Chad Dawson – Glen Johnson bouts.  There was no home cooking for the home fighters as both scorecards were representative of the actual fights.

Could HBO have been any more biased in their coverage of the Chad Dawson – Glen Johnson bout?  Yes, Chad Dawson was clearly winning the bout, but it was not as lopsided as HBO would have had you believe.  It was cheerleading at its finest.

I have to give it to Chris Berman.  I know he is a Bucs fan, but he called their upset of the Packers this weekend.  Nice job!

The NASCAR chase tightened up after Jimmy Johnson crashed on lap three of the race at the Texas Motor Speedway.  I don’t want to see anyone crash, but I am still holding out hope that Mark Martin somehow pulls of an improbable comeback to take home the championship.

I have no idea what Andy Reid thought he was going to accomplish by trying to call timeout and freeze Dallas kicker Nick Folk on a 22 yard field goal.

Fight Results

Saturday from Hartford, Connecticut

Light Heavyweight (175 lbs.)

Chad Dawson UD12 Glen Johnson

(117-111, 115-113, 115-113) 

Junior Middleweight (154 lbs.)
Alfredo Angulo KO3 Harry Joe Yorgey

Saturday from Nürnberg, Germany

Heavyweight
David Haye MD12 Nikolai Valuev

(116-112, 116-112, 114-114)

Haye wins WBA Heavyweight Title

Heavyweight
John Ruiz KO7 Adnan Serin

Heavyweight
Sergey Liakhovich KO1 Jeremy Bates

Saturday from Caracas, Venezuela
Super Flyweight (115 lbs.)

Alex Munoz UD10 Felix Machado

(97-93, 97-93, 96-94) 

Friday from Las Vegas, Nevada
Welterweight (147 lbs.)

Zab Judah KO2 Ubaldo Hernandez

Welterweight (147 lbs.)
Joel Casamayor UD8 Jason Davis

(79-73, 79-73, 79-73) 

Wednesday from Camp Lejuene, North Carolina
Super Featherweight (130 lbs.)

Jason Litzau UD10 Johnnie Edwards

(97-93, 99-91, 98-91)

 
Welterweight (147 lbs.)
Frankie Figueroa DRAW Rashad Holloway

(58-56, 57-58, 56-56)