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03/01/2009 04:37 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
The analyses I favor are those that agree with what's in the literature. I will trust the National Academy of Sciences over Glenn Beck. That's not exactly an extreme position.
But you express such things as coming from an "expert opinion" even though I consider you just as much of an expert on climatology as Glenn Beck.
Again, the problem with reading comprehension.
"It's not agreement with me, it's agreement with the scientific literature."
"I will admit to trusting the scientific process and accepting the scientific literature and the ruminations of bodies such as the National Academy of Sciences as reliable sources."
"I am not setting myself as an expert, but the people who actually do the science and publish their results are the experts, and the way to actually learn about what the "experts" think is to look at the scientific literature as a whole."
quote:
If i have to come to you to find out about climatology, I might as well go to Glenn Beck for the same opinion.
I've already suggested that you subscribe to the TOCs here and here.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/02/2009 06:48 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
Again, the problem with reading comprehension.
"It's not agreement with me, it's agreement with the scientific literature."
"I will admit to trusting the scientific process and accepting the scientific literature and the ruminations of bodies such as the National Academy of Sciences as reliable sources."
"I am not setting myself as an expert, but the people who actually do the science and publish their results are the experts, and the way to actually learn about what the "experts" think is to look at the scientific literature as a whole."
Again, your actions speak different. Sorry, I am not the one with the reading comprehension problem. Should i point out how often your posts dont reflect the above...........AGAIN?
You act as an expert in this forum. You are not. I dont care what you use as a source, but dont look down upon others as anti-science if they dont agree with your pre-conceived notions on the subject. YOU ARE setting yourself up as an expert here. You have, and you continue to do so. You play the expert because you call yourself a scientists and therefore THEY back YOU up.
quote:
I've already suggested that you subscribe to the TOCs here and here.
And i suggest you reread my synopsis of your posts on the subject. Who now has the reading comprehension problem?
I dont trust whatever link you post on the subject. I dont care where from. I have pointed this out before as well.
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
Edited: 03/02/2009 at 06:52 PM by lazarus
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03/02/2009 07:03 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
Again, your actions speak different. Sorry, I am not the one with the reading comprehension problem. Should i point out how often your posts dont reflect the above...........AGAIN?
He won't even accept a post from NASA, so why sweat this?
Like I said, the approval criteria changes as often as the weather...
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/02/2009 07:05 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
He won't even accept a post from NASA, so why sweat this?
Its because he is projecting his Reading comprehension problem on us. I am trying to help him.
quote:
Like I said, the approval criteria changes as often as the weather...
Of course, the approval criteria of the week is "whatever i say it is".
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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03/03/2009 05:13 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
Again, your actions speak different. Sorry, I am not the one with the reading comprehension problem. Should i point out how often your posts dont reflect the above...........AGAIN?
He won't even accept a post from NASA, so why sweat this?
No, I did not accept the claim you were making based on that post. I was actually expanding on the argument made in that post.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/03/2009 08:27 AM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No, I did not accept the claim you were making based on that post. I was actually expanding on the argument made in that post.
Uh, no. You have consistently scorched other scientists and papers with which you, ( and sources like RealCalamity ) disagree with...
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/03/2009 12:09 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No, I did not accept the claim you were making based on that post. I was actually expanding on the argument made in that post.
Uh, no. You have consistently scorched other scientists and papers with which you, ( and sources like RealCalamity ) disagree with...
.....one paper........
...and I pointed out the limited claim from that paper. You're the one who uses terms like "groupthink" to describe data from the scientific literature, and calling a climate site written by by some sophomoric name. It seems that you cannot bring up the ad hominem charge without having it head back towards you.
But I guess this is easier than actually bringing up new publications that support your position.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/03/2009 12:19 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
.....one paper........
ROFLOL!
How many scientists who have stated disagreement have been scorched?
RealClimate and Tamino, ( whoever that actually is..., no one seems to know ) are consistently blogging about this and have been a great resource for you. I guess they are approved.
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
...and I pointed out the limited claim from that paper. You're the one who uses terms like "groupthink" to describe data from the scientific literature, and calling a climate site written by by some sophomoric name. It seems that you cannot bring up the ad hominem charge without having it head back towards you.
But I guess this is easier than actually bringing up new publications that support your position.
Group Think was not mine - Spencer noted the DoD uses methods to help prevent it from happening. Seems it happens in the environmental field as well, but they are not interested in dealing with it.
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/03/2009 01:07 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
But I guess this is easier than actually bringing up new publications that support your position.
Group Think was not mine - Spencer noted the DoD uses methods to help prevent it from happening. Seems it happens in the environmental field as well, but they are not interested in dealing with it.
So that's your excuse for the lack of support for your position in the scientific literature. Pretty pathetic.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/03/2009 01:10 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
So that's your excuse for the lack of support for your position in the scientific literature. Pretty pathetic.
I don't use excuses - maybe you are thinking of Hansen, et al and the Group Think consensu crowd.
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/04/2009 12:42 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
February 23, 2009
Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have found that 2008 was the coolest year since 2000. The GISS analysis also showed that 2008 is the ninth warmest year since continuous instrumental records were started in 1880.
The ten warmest years on record have all occurred between 1997 and 2008.
The GISS analysis found that the global average surface air temperature was 0.44°C (0.79°F) above the global mean for 1951 to 1980, the baseline period for the study. Most of the world was either near normal or warmer in 2008 than the norm. Eurasia, the Arctic, and the Antarctic Peninsula were exceptionally warm (see figures), while much of the Pacific Ocean was cooler than the long-term average.
The relatively low temperature in the tropical Pacific was due to a strong La Niña that existed in the first half of the year, the research team noted. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of a natural oscillation of equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures over several years. La Niña is the cool phase. The warmer El Niño phase typically follows within a year or two of La Niña.
The temperature in the United States in 2008 was not much different than the 1951-1980 mean, which makes it cooler than all the previous years this decade.
"Given our expectation that the next El Niño will begin this year or in 2010, it still seems likely that a new global surface air temperature record will be set within the next one to two years, despite the moderate cooling effect of reduced solar irradiance," said James Hansen, director of GISS. The Sun is just passing through solar minimum, the low point in its 10- to 12-year cycle of electromagnetic activity, when it transmits its lowest amount of radiant energy toward Earth.
The GISS analysis of global surface temperature incorporates data from the Global Historical Climatology Network of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climate Data Center; the satellite analysis of global sea surface temperature of Richard Reynolds and Thomas Smith of NOAA; and Antarctic records of the international Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.
"GISS provides the ranking of global temperature for individual years because there is a high demand for it from journalists and the public," said Hansen. "The rank has scientific significance in some cases, such as when a new record is established. But rank can also be misleading because the difference in temperature between one year and another is often less than the uncertainty in the global average."
NASA
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/04/2009 12:47 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
February 23, 2009
Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have found that 2008 was the coolest year since 2000. The GISS analysis also showed that 2008 is the ninth warmest year since continuous instrumental records were started in 1880...
And was warmer than every year, but one, in the 20th century. What's your point?
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/04/2009 12:52 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
And was warmer than every year, but one, in the 20th century. What's your point?
The potential why - as NASA prints it:
2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
[...]
The relatively low temperature in the tropical Pacific was due to a strong La Niña that existed in the first half of the year, the research team noted. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of a natural oscillation of equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures over several years. La Niña is the cool phase. The warmer El Niño phase typically follows within a year or two of La Niña.
[...]
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/04/2009 01:08 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
And was warmer than every year, but one, in the 20th century. What's your point?
The potential why - as NASA prints it:
2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
[...]
The relatively low temperature in the tropical Pacific was due to a strong La Niña that existed in the first half of the year, the research team noted. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of a natural oscillation of equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures over several years. La Niña is the cool phase. The warmer El Niño phase typically follows within a year or two of La Niña.
[...]
And? Here are the data, plotted along with 5-year averages. ENSO does cycle (it's part of the name), but take a gander of the underlying trend for the last 40 or so years. Interesting that in the past La Niña year, the temperatures were higher than all of the El Niño years of the 20th century, except one. So what do you suppose the temperature will look like if the next couple of years are not La Niña years? It's a pretty safe guess that it will probably be higher than 2008.
Interesting thought while looking at the chart - we haven't seen a negative temperature anomaly (compared with the 1951-1980 base period) in 30 years. ENSO is a redistribution of heat between land and sea, but it's obvious that heat has been added to the system over the last 40 years. Or more accurately, less heat has been lost. I wonder what could have been responsible for this?
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/04/2009 01:17 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
[...]
"Given our expectation that the next El Niño will begin this year or in 2010, it still seems likely that a new global surface air temperature record will be set within the next one to two years, despite the moderate cooling effect of reduced solar irradiance," said James Hansen, director of GISS. The Sun is just passing through solar minimum, the low point in its 10- to 12-year cycle of electromagnetic activity, when it transmits its lowest amount of radiant energy toward Earth.
[...]
Pesky solar irradiance...
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/04/2009 02:12 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: keough
2008 Was Earth's Coolest Year Since 2000
[...]
"Given our expectation that the next El Niño will begin this year or in 2010, it still seems likely that a new global surface air temperature record will be set within the next one to two years, despite the moderate cooling effect of reduced solar irradiance," said James Hansen, director of GISS. The Sun is just passing through solar minimum, the low point in its 10- to 12-year cycle of electromagnetic activity, when it transmits its lowest amount of radiant energy toward Earth.
[...]
Pesky solar irradiance...
Here are the irradiance data - notice the cycle (Page here). Go back to the temperature data. Notice the rise since 1970 or so?
Explanation from the Max Planck Institute. Temp rise and solar irradiance have not correlated since about 1970.
Pesky CO2.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/04/2009 02:45 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
then temps should have been going up between 1940 and 1970....instead of down.
Good point.
Your ( Page here ) reference uses multiple models and heavily corrected data. The models are not realiable over longer terms, so they must be used for shorter terms, then that output is aggregated. This is a very unreliable method to determine treads.
The comparison of the three composites with ERBE shows that the PMOD composite is the most consistent. So, if one believes the ERBE record, and with the Sperman's rank correlation coefficient s of the PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB composites of 0.751, 0.678 and 0.695, respectively, it becomes clear which one should be chosen as a reliable estimate of the total solar irradiance for the last three solar cycles. The composite is available as daily values here.
NASA, ( some guy named Hansen ) is going with solar irradiance, ( the Sun ). Interesting...
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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03/04/2009 02:47 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
then temps should have been going up between 1940 and 1970....instead of down.
We've gone over this before - aerosols from industrialization (reduced by the Clean Air Act). Nobody is saying that CO2 is the only forcing.
I'm happy to supply links, but don't have time right now.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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03/04/2009 02:52 PM
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keough
Posts: 8767
Joined: 02/01/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
I'm happy to supply links, but don't have time right now.
Me too - oh wait - I did supply the link.
No more graphs please. They are meaningless. They may well have been generated by these models and corrected data.
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I wasn't born stupid, I had to study. Expelled - No Intelligence Allowed The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 66% of the world’s lawyers.
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