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03/29/2009 09:08 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
I guess that you missed the point about science being data driven. Or about looking up stuff yourself in the scientific literature to see whether my points were scientifically sound. When you bring up scheisse like that Michael Crichton lecture (nicely spun, logical, but devoid of science) while blowing off the scientific literature I have to wonder whether you really care about finding the truth. Hint: science has a way of uncovering truths in the natural world, and it's not through cleverly crafted arguments, but by using the scientific method and including all observations, not just the observations that one likes. Scientists are not lawyers.
AS if i need educated on what science is.
Um......
quote:
How about a political science annex course? Make some time........and i suggest you spam your "sources" trying to refute the misinterpreted premise of George Will's column.
IMO, you are not an authority as to what it is based on my opinions are on GW.
What is this supposed to mean?
quote:
NO, scientists arent lawyers. But GW needs another advocate. You do no justice for the cause.
I have no problems with reasonable people, Laz. So what's the alternative to using science to support a scientific argument? Tea leaves? Ask the coal or oil companies? Consult a free marketer? Oooh - listen to a science fiction novelist. Anyone but actual experts.
Oh, and you should love the logic of this. TSIB: the stupid, it burns.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/01/2009 12:44 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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Uh-oh.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/01/2009 01:05 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: John
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
Uh-oh.
I told you so  
I'm going to have to hang my head in shame. It was algore all along.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/01/2009 01:22 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: John
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
I'm going to have to hang my head in shame. It was algore all along.
And who says you don't have any cents in humor. 
I guess I'll have to put this up as penance.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/01/2009 01:23 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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This one's even better - and relevant.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/04/2009 07:41 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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Newly published by the American Geophysical Union: Arctic could lose most ice in 30 years
2 April 2009
A nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer may happen three times sooner than scientists had previously estimated. A new analysis of computer models coupled with the most recent summer ice measurements indicates that the Arctic might lose most of its ice cover in summer in 30 years.
Scientists don't expect the Arctic to become totally ice free, because ice will remain along northern Canada and Greenland. Powerful winds there sweep across the Arctic Ocean, forcing ice layers to slide on top of each other, building up a very thick ice cover.
"The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated," says James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "It's a combination of natural variability, along with warmer air and sea conditions caused by increased greenhouse gases."
Overland and Muyin Wang of the University of Washington, in Seattle, will publish their findings on April 3 in Geophysical Research Letters, a publication of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
The amount of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice at the end of summer by 2037 could be only about 1 million square kilometers (about 620,000 square miles.) That's compared to today's ice extent of 4.6 million square kilometers (2.8 million square miles.) So much more open water could be a boon for shipping and for extracting minerals and oil from the seabed, but it could also cause an ecosystem upheaval. Image
Abstract
I wonder if this will make anybody sit up and take notice. Of course, it will be too late by then.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
Edited: 04/04/2009 at 07:44 AM by Deech56
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04/05/2009 10:05 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
It is the end of summer down there.
This was a permanent ice shelf.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/05/2009 10:20 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
It is the end of summer down there.
This was a permanent ice shelf.
logically, the term is insane.
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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04/06/2009 05:04 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
It is the end of summer down there.
This was a permanent ice shelf.
logically, the term is insane.
"Permanent" meaning that it's been around for at least a millennium. Sort of like the permanent ice in Grrenland and the rest of Antarctica that is being lost or will be lost. The Antarctic peninsula has warmed about 3 degrees since the 1950s. Without AGW, the shelf would have still been there.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/06/2009 08:02 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
If it was only a 3 degree shift in 50 years then the temp was so close to "thaw" that it would have happened with variences in temp anyway.
The 3 degrees is the trend. For something to go from "permanent" to "departed" status requires long term change, not normal variation. These Antarctic ice shelves have weathered variations in temperature before, but something different is happening now.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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04/06/2009 12:18 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
If it was only a 3 degree shift in 50 years then the temp was so close to "thaw" that it would have happened with variences in temp anyway.
The 3 degrees is the trend. For something to go from "permanent" to "departed" status requires long term change, not normal variation. These Antarctic ice shelves have weathered variations in temperature before, but something different is happening now.
Also want to point out that an examination of the sediment underneath the Larsen-B shelf (which collapsed seven years ago and is further north than the Wilkins ice shelf) showed that it was about 10,000 years old before collapse. The times they are a changin'.
More on Wilkins here and here.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
Edited: 04/06/2009 at 12:18 PM by Deech56
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04/06/2009 01:09 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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Because some people were complaining that we were OT in the tea bag thread, I will move the teaching opportunity here.
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
BTW, anyone look at the chart? I'll start with a simple observation that they used the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements that keough has been trying to convince us are unreliable. The chart also referred to temperature readings that contain error - notice the zig-zags. BTW, the satellites don't even measure temperature directly. Internal consistency doesn't seem to be a goal for which to strive. The original errors in the chart are still waiting for discovery. Some people claim to have a technical background and should figure this out.
The chart in question can be found here under "Global Temperatures" (scroll down a bit - left side).
1. What is "UAH&RSS"? These are two satellite records - they just averaged them? Why? I've never seen this done before.
2. Different scales: temperature and CO2 are scaled differently.
3. Only trendline is for the cherry-picked data from 2002-2009 (OMG - it's cooling). Why not show a trend for the whole temperature range?
4. If you're going to claim that two trends are not correlated, why not do the math?
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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