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09/30/2009 11:49 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
Two meter sea level rise unstoppable-experts
Questions I get from reading:
1)Then why bother...
Because a four meter sea level rise is worse, and sea level rise is not the only effect.
quote:
If this is the way is was 122,000 years ago (when we weren't burning all the fossil fuels) what what the cause then?
Milankovitch cycles.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 11:55 AM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
If this is the way is was 122,000 years ago (when we weren't burning all the fossil fuels) what what the cause then?
Milankovitch cycles.
But its not the cause now?
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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09/30/2009 12:19 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
If this is the way is was 122,000 years ago (when we weren't burning all the fossil fuels) what what the cause then?
Milankovitch cycles.
But its not the cause now?
No. These are changes in the earth's axis and orbit that are well-studied, predictable and act on the milennial scale.
Edit: Here's the temperature chart.
One more edit (from the link above): "...if were were in the natural cycle without human influence, the forcing levels would likely be around 0W/m2 to -0.1W/m2."
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
Edited: 09/30/2009 at 12:25 PM by Deech56
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09/30/2009 12:48 PM
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John
Posts: 8056
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
2) If this is the way is was 122,000 years ago (when we weren't burning all the fossil fuels) what what the cause then?
I believe it was the cavemen sitting around a campfire eating beans.
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"Atheism: the religion devoted to the worship of one's own smug sense of superiority." - Stephen Colbert And they ask me why I drink   You want flavored water? Pour some scotch over ice and let it melt. That's your flavored water. - George Carlin
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09/30/2009 01:05 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No.
so the cycles stopped?
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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09/30/2009 01:53 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No.
so the cycles stopped?
No, but the interglacials are about 100,000 years apart, and we are about 6,000-8,000 years into the current interglacial, which is expected to last about 50,000 years. Then will come the ice age, unless we've pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to overcome the effects of the Milankovitch Cycles.
These cycles act at the 10K-100K year scale, and we already passed the peak of warming from the end of the last ice age.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 01:55 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No.
so the cycles stopped?
No, but the interglacials are about 100,000 years apart, and we are about 6,000-8,000 years into the current interglacial, which is expected to last about 50,000 years. Then will come the ice age, unless we've pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to overcome the effects of the Milankovitch Cycles.
Ok, so whatever warming that is occuring could be a result of this cycle....right?
quote:
These cycles act at the 10K-100K year scale, and we already passed the peak of warming from the end of the last ice age.
So yes, you agree........
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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09/30/2009 01:56 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: John
 I was thinking the same thing really. However, perhaps the Milankovitch cycles are not the 'cause', but I'm sure they are a factor somewhere.
Very, very slight. Orbital changes right now should actually be causing a net cooling. Just look at the 12K chart in the previous post.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 01:59 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
Ok, so whatever warming that is occuring could be a result of this cycle....right?
No.
quote:
quote:
These cycles act at the 10K-100K year scale, and we already passed the peak of warming from the end of the last ice age.
So yes, you agree........
No. The interglacial warming peak was between 6,000 and 8,000 years ago. We had been experiencing a net cooling until the greenhouse effect kicked in.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 02:36 PM
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lazarus
Posts: 9296
Joined: 08/12/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No.
And you know this....how?
quote:
No. The interglacial warming peak was between 6,000 and 8,000 years ago. We had been experiencing a net cooling until the greenhouse effect kicked in.
If you believe the hockey stick.
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"My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain...September 30, 1938 Spectemur Agendo - "Let us be judged by our acts." No more rules. We now defer decision making because its too hard and too risky.
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09/30/2009 02:41 PM
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Tr0ll01
Posts: 1412
Joined: 07/10/2007
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quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
Two meter sea level rise unstoppable-experts
Questions I get from reading:
1)Then why bother...
Because a four meter sea level rise is worse, and sea level rise is not the only effect.
but according to the expert :
"The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at Germany's Potsdam Institute and a widely recognized sea level expert.
"There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions."
So again ....why bother... write off Miami and New Orleans and get on with life...
quote:
quote:
If this is the way is was 122,000 years ago (when we weren't burning all the fossil fuels) what what the cause then?
Milankovitch cycles.
so now everyone is absolutely positively sure that nature has nothing to do with any of this...
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Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket? What if the Hokey Pokey really is what it's all about? WARNING: This post has not been subjected to Peer Review!
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09/30/2009 04:25 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: lazarus
quote:
Originally posted by: Deech56
No.
And you know this....how?
By knowing how the current orbital and axis positions are affecting climate. I posted this quote earlier: "...if were were in the natural cycle without human influence, the forcing levels would likely be around 0W/m2 to -0.1W/m2."
This is a pretty small effect. Variations in insolation (sunlight reaching the atmosphere) are very slow, and in fact, will be very small for the next 100,000 years ( Link) On a geological time scale, climate cycles are believed to be driven by changes in insolation (solar radiation received at the top of the atmosphere) as a result of variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Over the next 100,000 years, the amplitude of insolation variations will be small (see the figure), much smaller than during the Eemian.
quote:
quote:
No. The interglacial warming peak was between 6,000 and 8,000 years ago. We had been experiencing a net cooling until the greenhouse effect kicked in.
If you believe the hockey stick.
This has nothing to do with any belief in a sporting implement, but of evaluating temperature reconstructions through proxy measurements. The temperature chart for the last 12,000 years comes from a number of sources - a lot of sediments and ice core samples are included. The files that go back further come from various ice cores. These proxy measurements are the way we know when the ice ages occurred. they are pretty well accepted by the scientific community. This is where the "122,000" number that Troll was citing came from.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 04:30 PM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: Tr0ll01
so now everyone is absolutely positively sure that nature has nothing to do with any of this...
Of course there are natural components to climate change, but the recent changes are due primarily to human causes. For an explanation of the natural causes (and Milankovitch cycles), see this. For comparisons between human and natural causes, the information is here.
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
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09/30/2009 10:31 PM
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cchris
Posts: 85
Joined: 08/11/2008
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If you're not following the interesting events happening this week at Steve McIntyre's ClimateAudit site, you're missing out! Check out this excellent summary from Bishop Hill:
The Yamal Implosion
[I know you're already aware of what's going on Deech56, since I saw your dismissive comment at Tamino's site. But I don't expect you to weigh in with an opinion considering that none of the heavyweights (Tamino, Rabett, etc.) have managed much more in the way of refutation than sneers (as if that proves anything other than that they've been flummoxed by McIntyre's discovery.) And the silence from the Team at RealClimate has been deafening.]
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"I improvise. It's my greatest talent. I prefer situations to plans..." --Wintermute, William Gibson's "Neuromancer" "Free the data; free the code; open the debate." --Steven Mosher "Name three long-term stable, positive-feedback systems in nature. Get back to me on that when you're done." --Climate Skeptic & Finem Respice
Edited: 10/01/2009 at 12:00 AM by cchris
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10/01/2009 05:47 AM
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Deech56
Posts: 12249
Joined: 07/28/2005
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quote:
Originally posted by: cchris
If you're not following the interesting events happening this week at Steve McIntyre's ClimateAudit site, you're missing out! Check out this excellent summary from Bishop Hill:
The Yamal Implosion
[I know you're already aware of what's going on Deech56, since I saw your dismissive comment at Tamino's site. But I don't expect you to weigh in with an opinion considering that none of the heavyweights (Tamino, Rabett, etc.) have managed much more in the way of refutation than sneers (as if that proves anything other than that they've been flummoxed by McIntyre's discovery.) And the silence from the Team at RealClimate has been deafening.]
I hope you've looked at Tom P's analysis here and in subsequent posts. The other point that McI and his acolytes forget is that Mann, et al. 2008 and studies using other temperature reconstructions that don't use tree ring data show - a hockey stick. McI is still fighting MBH98/99, but the science has moved forward since then. This is why confirmatory studies are so important.
p.s. - didn't you bug out on one of these threads a while back? 
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The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. - Wallace S. Broecker Nature isn't just the final authority, Nature is the Only authority. - Charles B. Paul Elitist windbag since 2004.
Edited: 10/01/2009 at 05:50 AM by Deech56
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