SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- Roger Bilham thinks the next earthquake in Haiti will be another large-scale disaster. It is expected to come within the next several decades, said Bilham, a professor at the University of Colorado and one of the world's leading seismologists. But it might arrive sooner rather than later -- and he thinks that scenario is preferable.
"Now is the perfect time to have the next earthquake," he said. "Why? Because everyone is living in tents, the runway is open and relief workers are there."
Bilham offered his opinions Tuesday morning at the Hotel Mango near Santo Domingo while updating his University of Colorado webpage.
"This earthquake is similar to the one that struck San Francisco in 1989, and has been predicted for some time," he said.
Shoddy construction and a lack of interest in the Haitian plight were to blame for the magnitude of damage and death after the Jan. 12 earthquake, he said.
Bilham, who co-wrote, with Susan Hough, "After the Earth Quakes: Elastic Rebound on an Urban Planet," does not expect building construction to improve in Haiti.
He had just spent three days in Haiti filming a television documentary with London-based Pioneer Productions. He compared the Caribbean fault line where this earthquake occurred to the San Andreas Fault that stretches 800 miles through California to Baja, Mexico. The Caribbean fault, he said, runs from the Virgin Islands to Guatemala across the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
"There have been slips here at regular intervals every 200 years, probably for the last 2 million years," Bilham said. "Five hundred thousand, at least."
A similar earthquake to this month's temblor hit in the same spot in 1775. A smaller quake in 1860 was centered to the east, and a large earthquake with an epicenter west of Port-au-Prince struck in 1751.
The most recent quake put tremendous stress on the fault line, Bilham said, drawing a quick diagram.
"It's like a spring," he said. "The more stress you put on it, the more likely it is to pop."
The next quake could come at any time, he said. "My guess is within 10 to 20 years, but I am not making a prediction. The earth does what it wants, when it wants."
Bilham explained on his webpage: "Segments of the fault both to the east and west are likely to slip in the next several decades. The timing of these future ruptures is currently unknown."
With so much stress on the fault line, and the loading of contiguous ruptures to the east and west, the next quake could be significantly stronger, he wrote.
This month's quake stopped short of reaching the slip in the fault lines to the east and west from the earlier quakes, he said.
"Why did it stop at 60 kilometers? We don't know for certain," he said. "We think there is a bend at the fault where it stopped."
He predicts great diligence and careful engineering at the start of the rebuilding process, but he doesn't expect it to last.
Developing countries are beset by political corruption and corrupt contractors, he said.
"What happens is that the work goes out for bids. The lowest bid wins, and contractors start finding ways to cut their actual costs by 50 percent. They mix the cement at night when no one is looking, and use poor-quality steel. They're human, they want to make a profit."
In 10 or 20 years, it won't be the builder's family living in that building, Bilham said.
"People predicted this earthquake was coming, but 100 years after earthquake-resistant construction began nothing is standing. It should be appalling to the people of the world.
"How long anyone will keep a diligent watch on the contractors is the most important question."
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