Joe Alexander made a liar out of me.

I spent many nights watching Alexander play for Linganore High School's basketball team, and I had no idea of the talent tucked inside of him.

Sure, he looked like a fine high school player. He seemed like he might, at best, be a contributor for a small Division I team.

But he didn't seem like a major Division I player, let alone the potential NBA lottery pick that he became.

I shouldn't feel too bad, though. More astute basketball observers than me didn't see Alexander's potential.

He received no major Division I scholarship offers coming out of Linganore High School. He played sparingly at Hargrave Military Academy. And before this past season, he wasn't on any NBA team's wish list.

Yet Alexander is one of just 15 players invited to attend next Thursday's NBA draft, where he will likely be picked in the first round.

If anything, Alexander's rise proves that sizing up athletic talent in kids and young men isn't an exact science.

Sure, the Michael Beasleys of the world are anointed can't-miss prospects at an early age.

By high school, they possess all the usual tools. The height. The muscle. The vertical leaps. The quickness. The deceptive moves. The dead-on jumper. The polish.

All those things can be measured or seen with the naked eye.

But measurements and naked eyes couldn't detect all those things in Alexander when he played for the Lancers. And they couldn't detect his determination.

At Linganore , he was the rail-thin tall kid. To score, he relied on a quick first step and jumpers over shorter defenders. He had yet to pack on the muscle and bulk that would help him dominate inside the paint at West Virginia.

And at Linganore , he was still adapting to American organized basketball after spending much of his childhood in China. Most of us never saw how he practically lived in the gym, striving to improve.

Few -- if any of us -- saw Alexander's stardom coming.

He never got the limelight like other future pros from Frederick County.

When Terence Morris played at Thomas Johnson, he seemed destined for the NBA. Even then, people asked for his autograph.

And it wasn't a total shock when another Linganore star, 1997 graduate Cara Consuegra, played in the WNBA.

But heading into this season, no one was talking about Alexander as an NBA prospect.

When I interviewed him for a feature story shortly before this year's Big East Tournament, I was talking to someone in the midst of a stellar season. But the subject of him entering the NBA Draft early never came up -- it didn't seem like relevant topic at the time.

Then, Alexander caught fire in the Big East Tournament (culminating with his monster dunk over UConn's Stanley Robinson) and NCAA Tournament.

All of a sudden, Alexander was an NBA prospect. Bobby Knight -- not known for handing out compliments -- was praising the Linganore grad on national TV.

National publications flocked to do stories on him. NBA scouts scrutinized him. And after he put his name in the NBA Draft, mock drafts put his name up high.

The more scouts saw him, the more they liked him.

If he gets picked in the draft as expected next Thursday, it will make something written four years ago look prophetic.

In The Lance, Linganore 's high school paper, there were senior predictions. In 2004, one of them read: "Joe Alexander goes to the NBA and has a loyal fan base from Linganore High School that rents a bus and travels to every one of his home games, with writing on the windows that says, 'Joe's taller than you.'"

Back then, they must have sensed Alexander's talent. Wish I could say I did.

Post your comments » Round 2: Snow expected to fall today, Wednesday Fast on the heels of the largest 24-hour snowfall to hit the Frederick County since 1983, meteorologists are predicting another round of heavy snow and wind to hit today. The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning Monday afternoon for the area, including Frederick County, and said 10 to 20 inches of snow is possible by Wednesday night. Weather-related closings, delays A list follows of weather-related closings and cancellations for this week. Fire and police blotter Police search for robber School closures cause makeup schedule revision Even though Frederick County Public Schools are closed today -- using the sixth snow day this school year -- the school system will not hold school on the Monday Presidents Day holiday as the first scheduled snow makeup day. Crowds pay respect to fallen marine Even U.S. Marines couldn't hold back tears Monday at the viewing of their colleague, Sgt. David Smith. The procession to the Frederick Christian Fellowship Church was led by Frederick County Sheriff's deputies. Dressed in full military regalia, Marines carried Smith's casket into the church followed by family members as more Marines stood at attention.