Two Maryland political incumbents have had their prospects boosted through lopsided polling data for much of the election.
As the races become more local, however, the results become tougher to call.
An October poll found Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to have an 18.7-point lead over his challenger Ben Jealous (D), according to Real Clear Politics, a website that tracks races nationwide. The tally is developed from an average of four polls. Political experts have stressed that Jealous is likely to have made up some ground, but whether that ground will be enough to overtake Hogan on Nov. 6 remains to be seen.
Longtime Sen. Ben Cardin (D) has an even greater lead in his race: He had a 33-point advantage over Republican challenger Tony Campbell based on averages of the most recent Goucher College and Gonzales Research polls.
In slightly more local races, Jamie Raskin (D) and David Trone (D) could be considered front-runners in the 8th and 6th District congressional races, based on voter registration statistics.
There are 132,346 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the 8th District as of Oct. 20, according to the State Board of Elections. That district includes much of northern, western and eastern Frederick County, but not the city of Frederick.
The 6th District also shows a considerable gap, with 68,242 more registered Democrats than Republicans. That district includes much of southern Frederick County, as well as the city of Frederick.
In the 8th District, 107,725 people are not registered to a party. In the 6th District, 109,182 voters are registered unaffiliated.
Those totals don’t include Libertarian and Green Party voters, although those parties contribute to a much smaller portion of the voting population.
Given that public polling is not done within Frederick County, local races can be difficult to call. But like the congressional races, voter registration numbers before this year’s primary election give a sense of how some of those seats might fill up in December.
By that metric, the race for the at-large seats could be close. Those two seats serve the entire county, and according to the State Board of Elections, there are 64,669 Democrats and 67,012 Republicans registered in the county, as of Oct. 20, making for a relatively purple county.
There are 39,443 “unaffiliated” and “other” voters countywide.
Other races for County Council seats are also close, according to primary voter registration data from the State Board of Elections. District 1, which covers the southern part of the county, has 12,729 registered Democrats, 14,905 Republicans and 8,269 unaffiliated voters.
District 2 leans to the right, with 11,636 Democrats, 16,688 Republicans and 8,923 unaffiliated voters. That district covers much of the eastern part of the county.
Districts 3 and 4 have considerably more Democratic voters. District 3, which includes the western part of the city of Frederick, has 11,634 Democrats, 7,342 Republicans and 5,613 unaffiliated voters.
District 4, which includes the eastern part of the city of Frederick, has 14,879 Democrats, 10,495 Republicans and 7,893 unaffiliated voters.
District 5, which covers the northern part of the county, leans heavily Republican. That area has 8,884 Democrats, 15,874 Republicans and 6,668 unaffiliated voters.
Right now, the council, much like the county, is split: three Democrats, three Republicans, and one unaffiliated member. The preceding numbers alone don’t indicate how many people will turn out to vote, who votes straight versus split tickets and how candidate spending might have influenced election outcomes.
But, based on voter registration numbers, the split could remain.