110618_PrecinctMap_ForWeb

With county voter registration tilting in the favor of Republicans but turning more blue each year, The Frederick News-Post examined five precincts that could determine who gets elected Tuesday evening.

With early voting turnout doubling that of 2014, Frederick County appears to be in line with nationwide expectations of high turnout for Tuesday’s general election.

That is, unless potential rain and thunderstorms in the forecast deter voters from the polls.

With county voter registration tilting in the favor of Republicans but turning more blue each year, The Frederick News-Post examined five precincts that could determine who gets elected Tuesday evening.

Precinct 023-001

Voters in precinct 023-001 cast their ballots at Orchard Grove Elementary School.

Precinct: 023-001

Polling place: Orchard Grove Elementary School

Registered voters: 4,584

Analysis: The precinct with the highest number of voters, based on data from the 2018 primary, is also one of the most split. The Democratic Party carries a slight edge in terms of voter registration with 39 percent of registered voters registered as Democrats. Republicans make up 35 percent of registered voters in the district, and 23 percent are unaffiliated. The precinct had approximately 45 percent of those voters turn out in 2014, which was slightly below the county average. It still ranked as one of the highest vote totals of any precinct in the county, but there were still about 3,000 registered voters who didn’t turn out four years ago. If the precinct gets a big push toward one party or the other, it could indicate which party prevails Tuesday night.

Precinct 009-007

Voters in precinct 009-007 cast their ballots at Deer Crossing Elementary School.

Precinct: 009-007

Polling place: Deer Crossing Elementary

Registered voters: 4,339

Analysis: This precinct had the third-largest number of registered voters in the county as of the June primary. It’s a pretty clearly red precinct with 42 percent of registered voters being Republican. The more than 1,700 voters who cast ballots in 2014 were the most of any precinct in the county. However, Republicans in this precinct cast only 50 more votes than Democrats in the June primary with 358 of more than 1,800 registered Republicans casting a ballot. A similar turnout Tuesday could indicate the blue wave many national pundits are expecting. Strong Republican turnout in this district could go a long way to keeping the outer parts of the county the deep red needed to offset a potential blue wave starting in the city.

Precinct 02-004

Voters in precinct 002-004 cast their ballots at Hillcrest Elementary School.

Precinct: 002-004

Polling place: Hillcrest Elementary

Registered voters: 4,319

Analysis: If the blue wave is coming, this precinct will likely be one that tells that story. Nearly half the voters in this precinct are registered Democrats, compared with only 22 percent Republicans. However, this precinct had some of the lowest turnout in 2014, with only 32.7 percent of registered voters casting ballots. The precinct has a much larger base in this election gaining almost 2,000 registered voters since 2014. If turnout is even average based on the rest of the county, this precinct could be a substantial boost for Democrats.

Precinct 09-002

Voters in precinct 009-002 cast their ballots at Kemptown Elementary School.

Precinct: 009-002

Polling place: Kemptown Elementary

Registered voters: 3,487

Analysis: This precinct follows the trend of much of the southeastern part of the county with heavy Republican registration. Slightly more than 47 percent of the precinct’s voters are registered as Republicans to just 29 percent being registered Democrats — the smallest percentage of any of the 10 largest precincts in the county. If Republicans can combat a large Democratic turnout, getting voters to turnout in this precinct will be crucial.

Precinct 002-010

Voters in precinct 002-010 cast their ballots at Monocacy Elementary School.

Precinct: 002-010

Polling place: Monocacy Elementary

Registered voters: 4,308

Analysis: Another precinct with a high number of registered voters that saw low turnout in the 2014 election. This precinct had 4,308 registered voters as of the June primary, but only 37 percent of registered voters turned out in 2014. Higher turnout in this precinct could be another indicator of a potential blue wave.

Follow Allen Etzler on Twitter:

@AllenWEtzler.

Allen Etzler is a city editor at the Frederick News-Post. He can be reached at aetzler@newspost.com.

(15) comments

mrnatural1

On Nov 6, 2018 @ 7:39pm DickD wrote:

"The signature and duplicate votes would show up quickly if more than one person tried to use the birth date and address. What would happen is all of those votes would be kept separate for later viewing and decision of the Chief Judge to count or not count."

Absolutely. However, as I said below:

"...if the person who is being impersonated never attempts to vote in that election, the fraud would probably never be discovered.

For added security, it would be a good idea if people were to receive some notice -- a text and/or email -- thanking them for voting. That way, if they did not vote, they would be made aware that someone used their identity."

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that there is some big problem with voter fraud. As far as I know it's all but non-existent. I'm just surprised that a state-issued ID is not required.

mrnatural1

My wife and I just got back from voting and were talking about how relatively easy it would be to vote as someone else. Apparently it hasn't been a problem, but it's certainly possible.

Again, I'm not saying it is a major issue, but it would not be difficult to get a person's address and DOB. That's all you need -- no ID required.

You are asked to review the information and sign if it is correct -- so if anyone were to ever check the signature the gig would likely be up. However, if the person who is being impersonated never attempts to vote in that election, the fraud would probably never be discovered.

For added security, it would be a good idea if people were to receive some notice -- a text and/or email -- thanking them for voting. That way, if they did not vote, they would be made aware that someone used their identity.

threecents

Who would commit a felony just so they could vote twice? Sure, a few people would, but it has not been a major problem. Much bigger problem is cybersecurity with the voting machines.

mrnatural1

I completely agree threecents.

I am surprised that no ID is required though.

DickD

The signature and duplicate votes would show up quickly if more than one person tried to use the birth date and address. What would happen is all of those votes would be kept separate for later viewing and decision of the Chief Judge to count or not count.

DickD

We had incidents of people with the same name and address, usually it was a father and son. That's why the birth date is so important. .They don't ask you for the year, but the book judge has that information and you better look the age.

RepublicanRussian

If the Dems take the House Frederick County and Baltimore City will control the Judiciary Cmte and that’s gonna bad news for some folks.

rbtdt5

My prediction for winners. This is not who I'm voting for (well, voting for some of these), just who I think will win.
Hogan, Frosh, Cardin, Gardener, Dacey, Hagen, M.C., Trone, Folden, Frashnot, Jenkins, Dalton, Keller. I won't do school board and judges or questions.

DickD

Why Dacey?

DickD

Time will tell! Right now if you haven't voted, get out and vote.

public-redux

And if you have voted, get out and do it again! Use your neighbor's name!

awteam2000

Don’t forget to get their birth date.😄

public-redux

You don't need the year. Just month and day. Probably available on social media.

DickD

No, Gladys the book judge has the year from your registration.

DickD

How about your own name, Gladys?

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Engage ideas. This forum is for the exchange of ideas, insights and experiences, not personal attacks. Ad hominen criticisms are not allowed. Focus on ideas instead.
TURN OFF CAPS LOCK.
Don't threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
No trolls. Off-topic comments and comments that bait others are not allowed.
No spamming. This is not the place to sell miracle cures.
Say it once. No repeat or repetitive posts, please.
Help us. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.