As traffic congestion in the Washington, D.C., region, including Frederick County, is projected to grow over the next two decades, planners are focusing on a regional transportation plan.
The Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments’ Transportation Planning Board will meet Wednesday to review the latest version of Visualize 2045, a long-range plan for transportation in the region.
The board will review the projected performance of the region’s transportation system, including changes to how people will commute, access to transit, and projected highway and traffic congestion.
The most recent version of Visualize 2045 projects spending $223.3 billion on transportation over the life of the plan. It would spend 45% of the money on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, 22% on other public transportation, 32% on highways, and 0.4% on stand-alone bike and pedestrian projects.
The plan estimates that implementing the suggestions included in it would cause delays to increase by 48% and congestion by 31% over the life of the plan, compared to 80% and 58%, respectively, without implementation.
Most of the region’s increased travel will be on existing highways and transit systems. Even improved technology and increased telework and other changes in how people travel are unlikely to prevent increased congestion, according to the plan.
The region is expected to add 1.3 million people and 900,000 jobs by 2045, with 67% of jobs and 35% of housing located in regional activity centers. While 66% of jobs are currently in activity centers, only 29% of jobs are, according to the plan.
The regional activity centers in Frederick County include six in or just outside the city of Frederick, as well as in Urbana and Brunswick.
The projections come as the Washington region saw its slowest growth in decades, according to an August study from the Stephen S. Fuller Institute, based at Virginia’s George Mason University.
The region gained 735,093 people between 2010 and April 2020, a rate of 13%, according to the report.
While that was stronger than the national increase of 7.4%, it was the region’s smallest gain since the decade from 1970 to 1980.
Suburban Maryland grew by 11.1%, which trailed both the District of Columbia and Northern Virginia, both of which rose more than 14%.
The TPB plan projects that carpooling and using high-occupancy vehicle lanes will be as common as driving alone for all trips by 2045. Still, more drivers are still expected to drive alone in the region’s outer suburbs, which include Frederick and Frederick County.
According to the plan, 46% of outer suburb trips are expected to use single-occupancy vehicles, while 45% will use carpools or HOV lanes. Only 8% of trips will be by walking or biking, and 1% will use transit.
In the region overall, increased density and use of transit is expected to cause the percentage of vehicle miles traveled per capita to drop more than 5% by 2045.
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(1) comment
I suspect the regional transportation planning is working under the assumption the majority or workers in the region will still commute to their job on a daily basis, whether the job is a short commute or a long commute. That will be the case where the job involves dealing with customers or clients daily on a face to face basis, but many jobs do not involve face to face meetings, and as such workers do not need to commute when they can work just as well from home, as we recently learned during the pandemic. In fact, the younger generations are very comfortable with the virtual world and may not find spending 25% of their time commuting on a daily basis. Advances in technology are going to make remote working easier and more capable. It could even change the face to face environment to a virtual environment in many applications. So, with the potential for a significant portion of the regional workers working from home, will we find ourselves with relatively empty highways and roads for the most part?
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