OK, I admit it: A column I wrote three months ago was a real loser. That’s because I predicted California Sen. Kamala Harris would be a big winner in her own state’s presidential primary.

But two statewide polls show her falling far behind in the Democratic field, running a distant fourth and trailing Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

That’s in a California primary she should own. National polls and surveys in other states are showing similar weak numbers for California’s junior senator.

A new statewide poll of likely voters released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California shows a virtual three-way tie for the lead in the March 3 primary. Warren is at 23%, Biden at 22% and Sanders 21%. Harris trails way back with 8%, just ahead of South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 6%.

For Harris, that’s a significant drop from a PPIC poll in July that had her at 19%.

A different poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released last week showed Warren surging into the lead with 29%, followed by Biden, 20%, and Sanders, 19%. Again, Harris had only 8% and Buttigieg 6%. For Harris, it was a five-point drop from an IGS poll in June.

The California primary is still five months away. Before then, there’ll be a few televised debates and four high-profile early state contests — in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — that will influence voters here. The PPIC poll found that 53% of voters who currently support a candidate would be willing to back someone else.

“The California primary is very much up for grabs — up for grabs for Warren, Biden and Sanders,” says PPIC President and pollster Mark Baldassare.

Not Harris?

“Not now. Things could change.”

“Look at her approval ratings,” Baldassare says. “It’s not as if she’s starting out in a very strong position.”

In the PPIC poll, 64% of Democrats approve of how Harris is handling her job as senator and 20% disapprove. That’s good. But among independents, who can vote in California Democratic primaries, she has only 32% approval against 47% disapproval. Overall, counting Republicans, her approval-disapproval numbers are slightly negative at 43%-46%.

Baldassare says of Harris: “Seems to me she’s been talking more about what she’s going to do as a candidate in Iowa than what she’s going to be doing as a senator for California.”

Ouch. That’s a hazard of running for president, especially if you start eyeing the White House even before you’re sworn in as a freshman senator, as Harris did.

I’ve been around long enough to know it’s foolish to predict the winner of a contested presidential primary eight months in advance. I did insert some customary wiggle words, such as “probably” and “good guess.” But it was a bad guess. It was soon after the summer solstice, and maybe I was staying in the sun too long.

I was dazzled by Harris’ breakthrough performance in the first presidential debate. She attacked Biden on the race issue, tearing into him for his fond remembrance of political dealings with segregationist senators early in his career, and for his opposition to federally ordered busing for school integration. She proudly recalled that as a little girl, she was bused to help integrate a Berkeley elementary school.

In truth, however, mandatory busing for integration was very unpopular in California. In 1979, voters overwhelmingly banned it.

But Harris shined that night in the debate, reviving a campaign that had stagnated after an impressive start when she drew 20,000 people to a kickoff in her hometown, Oakland.

Assuming Harris would produce other highlight moments, which she has not, I erroneously theorized that she’d probably scare off rival candidates from competing in her home state. California offers 21% of the convention delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination, but it requires barrels of money and lots of campaign stumping to run a competitive race here.

There’ll be 14 state contests in all on that Super Tuesday. So the wise strategy would be to avoid California and focus on states where there’s a better chance of success.

Harris was the strong home-state favorite in California.

Forget it. She’s a weak candidate.

Harris’ message has been muddled and her agenda unclear.

That shouldn’t be a surprise given her unremarkable record as state attorney general. She was overly cautious.

A longtime opponent of the death penalty, Harris refused to take stands on two ballot measures that would have abolished capital punishment. They both failed. She also didn’t take positions on ballot measures to expedite the death penalty and reduce prison sentencing. They passed.

Her lame excuse is that it’s the attorney general’s ministerial duty to write the official title and summary for ballot measures. She didn’t want to appear biased. Baloney.

Harris has another opportunity to stand out and revive her campaign at the next debate on Oct. 15. And if the U.S. House impeaches President Trump, she could shine in the Senate trial circus.

Meanwhile, Harris should mark Dec. 26 on her calendar. That’s the last day to drop out of the race in time to remove her name from the California ballot and avoid a possibly embarrassing loss.

But I’m not predicting anything.

Copyright 2019 Tribune Content Agency.

(9) comments

jerseygrl42

Interesting piece and KH not unlike most of the Dems has nothing to offer beyond obstruction and more "freebies"....none of which obviously are free

DickD

All of the Democrat candidates would be better off without supporting Medicare for all. A medical choice would be good, but not Medicare for all. And if you are going to do Medicare for all give us the cost and let us know how the money will be obtained. If the money comes from taxes, explain why our seniors will pay higher taxes for something they already have. And there is no way that illegals should get free medical care. If they go to a hospital they have to be treated - that is fair, but ICE should be notified.

veritas

Careful, Mr D... you’re flirting dangerously close to the line of independent, logical thinking. Such demonstrations of heresy will not be tolerated in today’s Democratic Party. You could well end up kicked out of it. (Probably be the best thing that’s happened to you politically in eons).

DickD

i have always been an independent thinker, always will be one. Let me tell you a little story, as a local union president I got into some heated debate with some of our leaders on the international level.  There were management people that definitely didn't like me either. Still, I ran for a V.P. spot on the local, Ex. V.P. and then President. I always won, sometimes by large margins - until the last time when I lost by three votes. I could have challenged that, was told I would have won the challenge, but I had enough. You are lied to by members, lied to by management.After losing the election I was promoted to management and after leaving that company went to a different one where I was promoted three times and was a Director of their engineering group.No one likes to lose an election, but sometimes it is for the best. That loss gave me a management pension plan for higher than what it would have been as non management. And my pay scale tripled over the next ten years.So, yes, I am a independent thinker, always was, always will be one. Still, I don't like what I see the Republicans are doing now and my fear is we will end up like Germany and become a dictatorship.

jerseygrl42

Like it!

threecents

Dick, What I am even more worried about is the cost if we don't go for Medicare for all. Also, seniors would not necessarily have to pay more if we switched to Medicare for all. All Medicare for all does is cut out the insurance companies and brokers, while expanding Medicare. So you pay your insurance premiums to the govt, instead of insurance companies.

MD1756

Not all of the "medicare for all" plans (there are supposedly 9 in Congress) replace private health insurance. Even for those that allegedly do, medicare for all doesn't cut out the insurance companies and brokers for a number of issues. Current medicare and as far as I know, many of the "medicare for all" proposals don't cover many things such as dental, hearing and eye care (all important health concerns). Also how do they work for overall coverage. For example, my father has fallen a number of times and used up his 100 days at a hospital and rehab facilities. If anything happens (even unrelated to his falls) sends him back to the hospital or rehab in the next 36 days (so far he's gone 14 out of the required 60 days without an incident serious enough to send him to a hospital). Considering the last time he was home from rehab he only lasted 1 1/2 days before falling and hitting his head which resulted in surgery to address the massive hematoma, lasting two weeks (with 24/7 aides helping which medicare pay zero for), lasting two weeks so far is great. The point is medicare will only pay so much (fortunately he had gap insurance) will all of the "medicare for all" proposals do away with the rules they currently have? If not you'll still either need Bill Gates' wealth, or gap insurance.

DickD

I have dental and eye care - not glasses. Medicare will only pay 100% for the first 20 days. If you exceed 100 days they do not pay, your choice is to pay personally or go on Medicaid, if you have no money. You are not responsible for your father's bills, he can get on Medicaid if he has no money and assets.

DickD

I pay nothing now, how can you beat that?

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Engage ideas. This forum is for the exchange of ideas, insights and experiences, not personal attacks. Ad hominen criticisms are not allowed. Focus on ideas instead.
TURN OFF CAPS LOCK.
Don't threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
No trolls. Off-topic comments and comments that bait others are not allowed.
No spamming. This is not the place to sell miracle cures.
Say it once. No repeat or repetitive posts, please.
Help us. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.