Four years ago, at about this point in the election cycle, national polls showed Donald Trump in a deep political hole.

An Oct. 10-13, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found Hillary Clinton with a 10-point lead, 51 percent to 41 percent. An Oct. 10-12, 2016 Fox News poll showed Clinton leading by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent. And the Oct. 10-13, 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton holding a much narrower lead of 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Obviously, Trump came back to win the presidency even while losing the popular vote by 2.1 points. The national polls were right. They (and we) simply missed the obvious possibility that someone could win the popular vote handily and still not reach 270 electoral votes.

Trump is in a similar, though deeper, hole now. Can he come back again?

The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1, 2020) showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading by 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent. The most recent Fox News poll (conducted Oct. 3-6, 2020) showed Biden leading by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent. And a new ABC News/Washington Post poll (conducted Oct. 6-9, 2020) showed Biden up by a dozen points, 55 percent to 43 percent.

Just as disturbing for Trump supporters as the margins is the fact that most of the reliable polls show the former vice president at or often above the critical 50 percent mark. In the final week of the 2016 campaign, only a handful of polls showed Clinton at or above 50 percent on the ballot test. Many polls showed her leading but sitting in the mid-to-upper 40s.

The difference is crucial because it means Biden is picking up voters who didn’t vote for Clinton.

Remember, Trump and Clinton combined to receive only 94.3 percent of the national popular vote in 2016, far less than Barack Obama and John McCain combined for in 2008 (98.6 percent) or Obama and Mitt Romney combined for in 2012 (98.3 percent). (See my July 29, 2019 column “How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump.”)

Many voters could not stomach voting for either Clinton or Trump, so they cast their votes for a candidate they surely knew couldn’t win — or they didn’t vote at all. The non-voters/third party voters hurt Clinton in key states.

Wisconsin is a perfect example. Trump carried the state narrowly in 2016 but drew fewer votes than Romney had in 2012. Yet Romney lost the state by more than 200,000 votes to Obama.

Referendum on TrumpNow, Democrats are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump, who has spent four years making the 2020 contest a referendum on his presidency.

State polls are also now showing Biden poised to win in November.

The three states that sealed the election for Trump four years ago — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are all leaning strongly toward Biden, as is Arizona. Some states that were not particularly close last election and went for Trump — Georgia, Ohio and Iowa — now look to be “in play.”

The general election is being fought in states that went for Trump in 2016, which is always a bad sign for the incumbent president.

Finally, polls show significant movement toward Biden among crucial demographic groups, including seniors and suburbanites, particularly suburban women.

Republican strategists talk about a “shy” Trump vote, with large numbers of Trump supporters unwilling to talk to pollsters. There may well be some voters like that, though the final 2016 polls didn’t underestimate Trump’s showing by more than a couple of points. That wouldn’t change the current trajectory of the 2020 election.

The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020, of course, is four years of Trump in the White House. In 2016, Trump could ask “what do you have to lose” in giving him a shot. Voters now know.

Biden holding progressivesBiden is also better positioned than Clinton was. He is stressing his working-class roots and approach to problems, and he appears to be both holding the progressive wing of his party and successfully reaching out to pragmatists looking for someone who represents decency and stability.

Voters still trust Trump on the economy, but they prefer Biden on almost every other issue. Indeed, the new Sept. 30-Oct. 5 Pew Research Center poll, one of my favorite polls over the years, showed Biden leading Trump decisively on both personal characteristics and issues — as well as by 10 points on the ballot test, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Trump remains his worst own enemy, both personally and when it comes to messaging and political strategy. He rarely seeks to expand his coalition and often comes off as spiteful and petty, a man without empathy, a champion of religion who never goes to church.

The president can’t keep quiet when he should. He prefers to belittle and threaten both subordinates and opponents, violating norms seemingly each day.

Another three weeks of Trump rallies filled with outlandish accusations won’t change anything, other than radicalizing his true believers and undermining crucial democratic institutions.

Is the race over? Nobody will say it is “over” since we all missed Trump’s victory in 2016. But in the next three weeks, the president somehow must make 2020 about Biden, change the subject from COVID-19, and convince Americans who think he has undermined core democratic institutions to vote for him. How likely is that?

Some Republican voters may return home in the final weeks, especially if the Supreme Court confirmation fight firms up support on the right. And there still is time for two or three surprises that could alter the race significantly.

But you don’t need me to tell you the 2020 presidential contest is over. You can figure it out yourself. My rating of the race is unchanged from late June, when I moved the contest from “Leaning Biden” to “Likely Biden.”

(53) comments

jerseygrl42

Hard to believe anyone in their right mind could be thinking of voting for biden,harris....truly sad as they will be voting for the demise of this outstanding country

phydeaux994

Again jerseyboy144, last 5 Administrations...Democrats 2 Winners, Republicans Worse, Worser, WORSEST!!! That’s a trend you can’t ignore.🦧🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑

bosco

To answer the question posed in the headline, nope, that cake ain't baked yet.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/15/emails-reveal-how-hunter-biden-tried-to-cash-in-big-with-chinese-firm/

[ninja]

Greg F

Whatever I’m the debunked story already

bosco

Good thing the hard drive is in the hands of the FBI before Biden had an opportunity to take a hammer and bleach to it like Clinton did.

[ninja]

bosco

Yes, GregF, you are the debunked story already. Have you noticed how few people ever respond to the poo you sling at other posters here every day, all day? It must be sad to be debunked and irrelevant. I think I'll stop responding as well. I probably should have when you called me a racist for not buying a bicycle made in China.

Hitting the ignore button.

[ninja]

Greg F

Hey Bonzo...so let's see how you don't count THIS as voter fraud....it's a clear felony here...and yet your GOP dances on like it's no big deal. Now you're even whatabouting about Clinton again. Haha..keep grasping at those straws and stick your head further in the sand...you'll need practice to put it up your back end. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/politics/california-republicans-ballot-drop-boxes-cease-and-desist/index.html

gabrielshorn2013

GregF, Untoward? yes. Poor taste? Absolutely! A felony? Absolutely not. Not even illegal, and may also be done here in Maryland. This story was on the NBC nightly news on Tuesday. 25 states, including California and Maryland allow others to deliver ballots to the voting board. It was a shocker to me too. Please see the NBC story at this link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFng9YGKUwI

Greg F

Illegal...yes. They are marked official whic is a crime! https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/california-illegal-ballot-drop-boxes-election-officials-order-republicans-remove/

Greg F

They cannot be marked official, which is what they are doing. Here is your GOP voter fraud.

gabrielshorn2013

Call NBC news and contradict them. They claimed it to be legal. Did you watch the news clip?

Greg F

It’s on all others, CBS, NPR, PBS, CNN, MSN...and only yours contradicts it. You can I call a ballot box official if the election board and or state sanctions it officially, period.

gabrielshorn2013

""The California Republican Party did not promote, or authorize the promotion of, the secure boxes as 'official mail drop boxes,'" the letter states. "When we learned that a sign using the word 'official' was used in some locations on Saturday, October, 10, 2020, we corrected that error immediately and within hours."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/politics/california-republicans-ballot-drop-boxes-cease-and-desist/index.html

phydeaux994

Revealed by none other than Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani. Discovered on a laptop brought to a computer repair store “by Hunter” but never picked up. Love those unEducated and Deplorables, they believe EVERYTHING on Trump State TV Fox Propaganda Channel. Tucker, Sean, and Laura swore on the Bible Trump held up in a Photo Op.

Dwasserba

"Republican strategists talk about a 'shy' Trump vote, with large numbers of Trump supporters unwilling to talk to pollsters." I believe this to be real - educated people with strong religious convictions are conflicted. They don't want to be one-issue. They see other competing issues as equally deserving. They answer to a Higher Authority. Churches offer printouts of politician positions. A vote is private. It is acceptable to lie if someone has no business asking the question.

NewMarketParent

I think a lot of people are fine with being one-issue. If it didn't work, Republicans would not be using "wedge issues" as their weapon of choice for so many election cycles.

DickD

That was 2016, this is 2020. Trump has been in office four years and his record is terrible. He cut taxes for the billionaires and large corporations did not help the bottom tax payers much or in some cases none. Biden has promised taxes will NOT go up for those making less than $400,000.

Biden will work hard to improve our infrastructure, Trump has done nothing, except brag about a wall that Mexico was going to pay for. Very little of the wall has been built and Mexico has not paid for any of it.

Trump has done nothing to help minorities even though he takes credit for improvement that resulted from Obama's term in office.

When it comes to Obamacare Trump has weakened it and gone to court to stop it, while claiming to have a improvement that has never materialized.

Women's rights on abortion and a pledge to overturn Roe vs Wade will result in the death of many. And Trump's lies on COVID have already caused many to die.

gabrielshorn2013

While I agree with a lot of your post, Dick, there are two points that I disagree with. First, soaking the rich has never been a solution to tax revenue issues. We had a big problem with corporations offshoring to avoid the US tax rates, and it was perfectly legal to do so. Corporations are free to move wherever they want, and can set up a small office in the lowest tax country. Many companies “moved” to Ireland for their favorable corporate tax rates (35% in US vs. 12% in Ireland). Dunkin Donuts acquired Tim Hortons in Canada for the same reasons, and it is all perfectly legal. Celebrities have “incorporated” themselves to avoid taxes, and on and on. There will always be a way for people with clever accountants to avoid (not evade) taxes, and it is again all perfectly legal. Don’t you take advantage of every possible deduction on your income taxes? I sure do. The tax code should be simplified to a “flat tax”, with no deductions. None. The best tax programs have low rates and broad applicability. You make more, you pay more. Make less, pay less. Remove the cap on FICA too, and lower the rate. The less well-off will see their taxes reduced because their rate went down, and the well-off cannot play the perfectly legal shell game with their money. Isn’t that what everyone wants…for everyone to pay their fair share?

Second, regarding the deaths from CoViD-19. “The rules” have been in place since March, so that is a canard. They are: 1) stay out of crowds, 2) keep at least 6 feet apart, 3) wash your hands frequently, and 4) wear a mask. Those that have followed those simple rules have not become infected with this highly contagious disease. We have all heard these rules repeatedly on TV, radio, newspapers, the internet, overhead traffic signs, etc. It is human nature to say “this one time of bending the rules won’t hurt”, but it does. Get careless, get infected, infect others, and on and on. The virus couldn’t care less about what political party its next victim belongs to. You don’t think for a minute that the only people getting infected are Republicans, do you? No! They are from all stripes. All those college students moving away from supervision at Mom and Dads, now on their own, and making bad decisions regarding socializing are a prime example. We are suffering from “pandemic restlessness”, and the longer we are in it, the more careless people will get. The cases in Europe are peaking again due to this phenomenon. Germany, Italy, and Spain will begin invoking strict prohibitions on gatherings to combat the rise, and the UK is shutting down gathering places such as bars and restaurants again. Is that Trump’s fault too? No. Again, human nature.

awteam2000

“ Those that have followed those simple rules have not become infected with this highly contagious disease. We have all heard these rules repeatedly” ... there was a Rose Garden event at the White House where those rules were ignored, leading to a supper-spread event. Now 27 attendees have tested positive for the Coronavirus. The careless behavior of this administration has directly led to spreading the virus. Even the President being infected.

Trump doubles down by continuing to have unmasked, attendees herded together, large crowds only exasperating the spread among Republicans.

We can differ over tax responsibility but an administration that ignores its own rules is irresponsible at best, possibly civil negligence, “ pandemic restlessness”.

gabrielshorn2013

@ awteam2000 Oct 14, 2020 10:52am

So you agree that not following the rules is the cause of getting infected, right? The Rose Garden ceremony was but one example of how anyone that ignores the rules gets infected. Gatherings of any kind are another, whether they be parties or protests. Meeting with your trusted "closed circle" of friends is another (your friends may have outside friends and brings the infection into your group). Again, the virus does not respect political parties. That's your bias. Assignment for you aw, tally up the infection rates between Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and Libertarians and get back to me.

awteam2000

Gabe, simply saying in your words “ not following the rules is the cause of getting infected”. “The Rose Garden ceremony was but one example of how anyone that ignores the rules gets infected.” That was a Trump event, not following the rules, inexcusable. Right?

Now, when it comes to taxation, all should contribute based on income. Trump, a billionaire ( i’m assuming you’re not a billionaire), shouldn’t pay at a lower rate then you, especially when they benefit more. Do you?

gabrielshorn2013

We can agree on that aw, and I never claimed differently. An unmasked, close proximity social event is never a good idea (hell, it’s a damned bad idea) during this health crisis, regardless of who is holding it. There are no mulligans with CoViD-19. Get complacent, get careless, get infected, infect others. That’s how disease transmission works. It is a personal responsibility for all of us to follow the four simple rules that I listed, no matter who you are. Unless you are a first responder or healthcare worker that must directly interact with the infected, and may become infected themselves in turn, there is simply no excuse for the others who got infected. They ignored the rules and got caught. You are still uninfected, right? I am, and will continue to be. Why is that?

As for Trump’s taxes, no, he should not pay a different rate than me, but due to all the loopholes making our tax code holier than Swiss cheese, he is legally able to pay a lower effective rate, and it has been that way long before he ever took office. That is why I support a flat tax with no deductions, regardless of source of income. Make the rate low and have broad applicability. Home mortgage interest deduction? Nope. Kids? Uh-uh. Separate rate for capital gains tax? No again. Took a business loss this year? It applies to this year. You don’t get to carry it forward for years. Make $X, multiply by Y%, pay Z tax. There is no way to game the system, because all income is reported to the government anyway. Remove the FICA caps too, and lower the rate. With such a plan, the Trumps’, the Bezos’, the Buffetts, the Amazon.com’s, etc. of the world cannot escape their tax burden, but the burden will be fair and evenly distributed. As it is now, if you have a good accountant, you can avoid paying any taxes just by using the legal loopholes. How much did Jeff Bezos or Amazon pay in income taxes in the past decade? Not much at all. Amazon paid $162 million in federal income taxes last year on $13.3 billion of U.S. pre-tax income, an effective tax rate of 1.2 percent. It deferred more than $914 million in taxes. Amazon’s rate was far lower than you or I paid. Here are the rates that the Fortune 500 paid in 2020:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-fortune-500-companies-avoid-paying-income-tax/

awteam2000

Gabe should corporations and billionaires pay more taxes then they pay or less? What is regressive tax income? Who’s under the greater burden (relative to resources) the poor or the rich?

“You can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.“

gabrielshorn2013

@aw: That is a silly question, and you know darned well that I think they should pay more, hence my support of a flat tax. You didn’t look at any of the links I posted, did you? Please give a few examples of a tax that is not what you term “regressive”. If everyone pays the same rate the rich will pay far more than they do now, because there are no exemptions…for anybody. If that happens, the nominal rate for everyone may be reduced (well, maybe after we pay off the national debt, currently standing at $27.2 TRILLION) to where our rates are lowered. The complaint is that “the rich don’t pay their fair share”, but what is anybody’s fair share if the rate charged is not equal? Equality means that everyone shares the burden equally.

awteam2000

Just saying Gabe, my 70 years on this planet, I can’t recall the US corporate tax rate or for the most wealthy being so low. We are experiencing the highest deficit since 1945. All in the middle of a crisis. If you think McDonalds employees, school teachers, policemen, firemen, civil servants or ordinary people hustling every day to make ends meet can reduce the economic debt you are mistaken. The money ain’t there.

gabrielshorn2013

aw, again, you are ignoring the fact that the wealthy will no longer have loopholes to avoid taxes, because nobody does. Now, in the case of Amazon, instead of paying a 1.2% effective rate due to loopholes, bump that up to maybe 10% for the ease of math, and calculate the tax due. Now do that for Bezos, Trump, Gates, Buffett, etc. who pay virtually no taxes. See the benefit now?

bosco

Who writes the tax laws and includes those loopholes? And how many years has Biden been in Congress?

[ninja]

Greg F

Not talking about "soaking" the rich. Many of them even asked for higher taxes, and we have had much higher rates historically than now and things worked fine. Right now, it is the lowest it's ever been, and it is a BROKEN system that is aimed squarely at the UBER rich ever since Trickle down (aka Voodoo Economics per Bush I) was introduced. It's taking on new names and angles, but it's the same BS as it has been for decades now. Trickle down is really a GUSH upward. Trump did it in spades with his tax break free-for-all-rich folks. As for "the rules" they have been suggested, and promptly ignored and downplayed by the orange idiot...stop the lies about that already. He's still acting as if nothing is wrong and that the pandemic is over already.

gabrielshorn2013

So, I'll take it that you don't believe in a flat tax rate then GregF? You say that the rates were higher back then, and that is true. However, then as now, nobody paid those exorbitant rates. You have to look at the effective rates. There have always been ways to avoid (not evade) paying taxes by those with the ability to do so. A flat tax with a low tax rate is a fair tax because everyone pays in something. Again, you seem to want to "screw the rich" with your demeanor, but there will always be ways around paying the set rate. That's a fact, and why I support a flat tax. Are you one of the "Uber rich" who will be effected by a flat tax? As for "the rules", yes, Trump ignored them and got his @$$ infected, but so has everyone else that got infected, regardless of political affiliation, socio-economic position, etc. Pandemic control is a defensive issue. If you prevent yourself from getting infected (as is your personal responsibility) then you cannot pass it onto someone else, agree? You can only control your own behavior. So exactly where have I lied? These same rules are supported by the CDC, FDA, WHO, AMA, and everyone else in the health sciences. These are not "The Administration's Rules". These are common sense among the healthcare community. My former students know them well. Please explain the huge increases of CoViD-19 in Europe then Greg? Here is a link for you:

https://www.statista.com/chart/22102/daily-covid-19-cases-in-the-us-and-the-eu/

Greg F

No, I am not for a flat tax. There is a happy balance of tax and wealth, and the idea that giving tax breaks equates somehow unicorns will bring jobs to people has proven over and over to be a bogus rally call. The system in the last decades has raped the people with the most massive wealth shift in history. We should be equating these cuts to what the lords did to the serfs and like landlords and robber barons did in days of yore where we burned their houses down for doing so, or tarred and feathered the politicians that let it happen. If Trump happened back then, I'm guessing he'd have gotten his ride outta town on a rail by now...full of feathers. So would many politicians on both sides...and a sheriff in MI that now backs the ones who wanted to kidnap the governor(s).

gabrielshorn2013

I don't know who you are arguing with after your statement of "no, I am not for a flat tax". Certainly not as a reply to any of my statements. Why do you not support everyone paying the same tax rate? Why do you support tax loopholes?

NewMarketParent

Here is the simple fact. Business do not exist without customers. Whenever there is a need, there is money to be made. I am not sure where we got to the point of begging the uber-rich to please start businesses. They do not unless there is a need. The rich disproportionately are served by infrastructure spending, yet we barely require them to proportionately take care of the infrastructure that they take advantage of. They are the winners at the game of life, yet we always have to go hat in hand begging them to accept that they may have to pay a few extra dollars. They are welcomed to leave the country. Here is the catch. They don't get any of our infrastructure. They can't use our airports, roads, banks and they definitely don't get the protection of the US military. Good luck running your own personal country. Don't let the door hit you where the good lord split you.

MD1756

[thumbup] One thing you didn't discuss is Dick's statement "He cut taxes for the billionaires and large corporations did not help the bottom tax payers much or in some cases none." While I'm really not a Trump supporter, that statement is misleading and/or unfair at best. When, each year, there are a number of tax filers who pay no tax or actually get money from the federal government (not just a refund on paid income tax), it is impossible to lower their income tax burden. The tax foundation has an article where they identify information from the Congressional Budget Office (see: https://taxfoundation.org/60-percent-households-now-receive-more-transfer-income-they-pay-taxes). The CBO shows "For the lowest quintile, these refundable measures reduced their total federal tax bill to a mere $200. By contrast, their transfer income was $8,500. This means, they received $42.50 in transfers for every dollar they paid in taxes."

I agree with gabrielshorn in that we need to get rid of income tax deductions and credits (at best we should exempt the first x% of income). I'd prefer a flat tax rate but would accept an increasing tax rate but again income tax deductions/exemptions should be eliminated. Trump may not have helped the low income people much, but he didn't hurt them with the new tax policy (and they went the wrong way by increasing the deductions per child).

NewMarketParent

@MD1756

Flat tax rates disproportionately target the poor because the price of bread and essentials are a way more significant budget burden for the poor than it is for the rich. Additionally, it is more expensive to be poor as you can't take advantage of buying in bulk, you also don't necessarily have the luxury of shopping around for a place to live in your price range because affordable housing is very often not in the places where jobs are plentiful, so now transportation is more expensive.

If your argument becomes that we should just tax above a certain threshold.... congratulations, you have just created a tax bracket. Want to dance again?

gabrielshorn2013

NMP, your claim is that this basically is a "regressive tax" because everyone pays the same rate. This could be said of sales tax, fuel tax, restaurant taxes, hotel taxes, vehicle titling and registration, vehicle insurance, rent or mortgages, and on and on. Wawa doesn't ask what your salary is when you pay at the pump. Nor does Walmart, or the MVA, or Costco. If, for example, FICA tax was uncapped, but the rate lowered, wouldn't the poor see savings? like I said, taxes should be low, but broad in their applicability.

MD1756

NMP, if you read my comment closely enough, you'd realize I said I'd prefer a flat tax but would accept an increasing tax rate (meaning higher taxes for higher income tax brackets). I am more concerned about income tax deductions/credits which is more about implementing social policy through the tax code than it is in raising revenues fairly. Why should a home owner get an income tax deduction? Why should a parent get an income tax deduction and/or credit for having children, etc. Eliminate all deductions/credits. Tax capital gains and income at the same rate. If the government eliminated deductions/credits you'd probably find they could lower the tax rates. Wouldn't that help those on the lower end of the scale since they are limited as to how much they can deduct (although there are some cases where the deductions are greater than 100% of income), eliminating deductions would put everyone more one the same footing and probably subject higher income earners to a greater tax (whether or not they pay a higher tax rate).

phydeaux994

Trump took the most important thing an American citizen can do to fight COVID-19, WEARING A MASK, and made NOT WEARING A MASK a Trump Loyalty Test. To the point that people have been severely beaten, and indeed Killed for asking a Trump Supporter to wear a mask when and where appropriate. Trump knew by Feb 7, as the Bob Woodward tape proved, that the COVID-19 virus could be transmitted through the air, making masks the best deterrent to one person passing the virus to another person, so that everyone should be wearing a mask in public to have everyone protected. Donald John Trump effectively told 40% of the American population NOT TO WEAR A MASK. We’re talking about reality here gab, Trump told his supporters to ignore the best advice the best experts in the World could give to save the most lives. Had he put on a mask in Feb and told his supporters to wear a mask, thousands of lives would have been saved.

gabrielshorn2013

“…To the point that people have been severely beaten, and indeed Killed for asking a Trump Supporter to wear a mask when and where appropriate.” Rather a broad statement there phy. Only Trump supporters are being violent when asked to wear a mask? You mean these “Trump supporters” phy?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-masks-dollar-store-shooting-flint-Michigan.html

How about this one?

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/st-louis-man-opens-fire-after-being-told-to-leave-store-for-not-wearing-mask/article_3b293ede-f6c1-50b9-bf20-f7c695594ff3.html

Maybe these?

https://www.nola.com/news/crime_police/article_51ff724e-d04a-11ea-9e8f-47c4ccd81877.html

https://apnews.com/article/shootings-michael-brown-health-st-louis-virus-outbreak-141517df7b5edf689bf4dfc71a8540a7

Here is a link to even more:

https://www.thetrace.org/2020/05/coronavirus-restrictions-social-distancing-shootings-tracker/

Those that are being violent are hardly all Trump supporters. They are just plain old everyday idiots.

“Donald John Trump effectively told 40% of the American population NOT TO WEAR A MASK.”

Effectively told? I take my medical advice from my physician phy, and other medical experts. How about you? “The rules” have been published on TV, radio, newspapers, the internet, and overhead road signs since March. You can’t miss them. They are 1) avoid crowds, 2) stay at least 6 feet apart, 3) wash your hands frequently, and 4) wear a mask. I am uninfected, and I hope you are too. Why is that? I will assume that we both know the rules, and are following them. As I told my kids, “monkey see, monkey do, monkey get in trouble too”. Those that got infected since the publication of “the rules” (with the exception of first responders and healthcare workers) have nobody but themselves to blame. What are the pro athletes excuses? The college students (UNC-CH had a 31% positivity rate!)? They gambled and lost.

Now, is it Trump's fault that the infection rate in Europe is skyrocketing again?

https://www.statista.com/chart/22102/daily-covid-19-cases-in-the-us-and-the-eu/

phydeaux994

Where did I say ONLY Trump supporters committed these acts? Trump criticized and humiliated people for wearing a mask. At news conferences he pretended to not understand reporters who were wearing masks. Do you deny that millions of Trump Supporters do not wear masks as a display of their support of Trump? Do you deny that the points I made in my comment are true and that thousands of American lives would have been saved had Trump set a responsible example?

gabrielshorn2013

Phy, do you not read what you write? “…made NOT WEARING A MASK a Trump Loyalty Test. To the point that people have been severely beaten, and indeed Killed for asking a Trump Supporter to wear a mask when and where appropriate.” People were also assaulted or killed by non-Trump supporters for not wearing a mask. Stupid is just stupid, and political affiliation has nothing to do with it. I do not deny that many Trump supporters don’t wear masks. I also know that many non-supporters don’t wear masks and follow the rules, as evidenced by the number of CoViD-19 infections amongst all political affiliations. I will ask you the same question I asked aw. What is the tally of Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and Libertarians that are infected. Your premise would mean that the vast majority of those infected are Republicans because they didn’t follow the rules. That is false. As for Trump setting the example, I will note that you didn’t answer my earlier question regarding the skyrocketing infection rates in Europe. Is it Trump, or human behavior that is causing such high infection rates in Europe. Since Trump has nothing to do with Europe, and their rates are drastically increasing, I would say the latter. Therefore, it is more of a human nature issue in both the US and EU.

phydeaux994

I’m talking about how Donald John Trump’s power over 40% of the U.S. population has caused THOUSANDS of unnecessary DEATHS and millions of unnecessary infections including HIS OWN SON? 🦧🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑THOUSANDS DIED for no reason except the inaction and terrible example set by Donald John Trump. That’s why I used the word REALITY in my previous comment hoping to avoid your usual Baffle Them With 🐂💩Reply. Trump not only doesn’t wear a mask but now he’s going to go out among his Worshipers and give them a BIG FAT KISS.💋💋💋Rams, Ewes, and Kids. A vote for a LIBERTARIAN is a vote for Trump!!

gabrielshorn2013

And there he goes, spinning off into a tizzy, with addled attempts at insults. smh...be well phy.

phydeaux994

I’m getting tired of winning these debates with the RRR(RadicalRightRepublicans)/BTT(BullyTagTeam), what’s left of them. I’ll give Trump credit for one thing, knowing he could manipulate the unEducated, the deplorables, the Sheeple. Even Rats know when it’s time to leave a sinking ship. Not these guys, they sold their SOULS to him and are too helpless to get outta town.

phydeaux994

Where did I spin off gab? Who did I insult? You are so jsk gab. Go back on your Sabbatical. Vote for Biden and America, not for Trump and Tyranny. And slap that smirk off of Vladimir’s face.

gabrielshorn2013

I don't know what debate you think you won phy, but it certainly wasn't this one. All you did was make gratuitous assertions, erroneous assumptions, and throw in some ad hominems. Your debate score would be very low, but if it makes you feel better, tell me where to send your participation trophy. ✌

phydeaux994

The specific points I made were not countered with any specific arguments from you gab, so I assume you had none. I call that as another win in our ongoing debate as that is par for the course. All you provide is arguments such as “what about Europe”?😂🤣😷

awteam2000

Gabe said he‘s voting for Jo Jorgensen. Not Trump.

gabrielshorn2013

Sorry you are unable to understand the connection phy. You assert that it is Trump who is responsible for our high rate of infection, and I said that it is more due to human nature and not following the rules. As an example, I asked about the skyrocketing infection rates in Europe. What is common to the two regions with now similar rates of infection, Trump or human nature? Of course human nature is the common factor. Therefore it is the more likely reason, especially since the affected countries have a spectrum of government forms, and not "Trumpists". Get it now?

gabrielshorn2013

Thanks des. 👍 It now appears that someone disagrees, and is trying to have your post deleted by reporting it. I just got the notification.

phydeaux994

I would agree gab if the flouting of the Rules was equal across the Political Spectrum. It’s not. Conservatives across the Country seem to be the main flouters. Compare a Trump Rally to a Biden outing. Or a BLM group protesting on one side of the street vs the Boogaloo Bois on the other. The Trump Town Hall and the Biden Town Hall will be broadcast simultaneously on different Networks. That will be a good indication of our positions on that. May the best man win. Peace.✌️

gabrielshorn2013

And there you go phy, gish-galloping all around the subject, yet again. To refocus, you claim that Trump (and now apparently all Republicans) are the only ones that flaunt the rules and get infected. As I pointed out previously above (please read), if that were true, the vast amount of infections and deaths would be Republicans, because according to you, the Democrats are not flaunting the rules. You still haven't answered my question on what the political party breakdown on infections is. When do you think you might get to that? Don’t you want to support your argument, or do you wish to keep it as another gratuitous statement? When you finally do your assignment, you might find that the infection rate is split pretty evenly among political leanings whether they are D, R, I, or L. Since following the rules prevents infection, and they got infected, they must not be following the rules. Can you follow that?

phydeaux994

Infections caused by Conservatives flouting the Rules are 78% if you contact trace the infections back to the original carrier. Not one of the experts advising on COVID-19 has said that the alarming spread of the virus is caused by “human nature”. 78% gab, 78%. 1) Quit making stuff up 2) Quit making stuff up. Peace.✌️😷And again, where did I say that Trump Supporters are the ONLY ones flouting the Rules. I didn’t but Trump Supporters are the MAJORITY of those flouting the Rules. Peace.✌️😷 🦧🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑

gabrielshorn2013

Got a reference for your stat phy? "Human nature" being thinking their bending the rules this once won't matter. It does. Get careless, get infected. I explained that several times above. Follow along. Jeez, are you really that literal? I am talking about how individual A gets infected by person B. If they followed the rules, person A would not have gotten infected. If that isn't true, then the rules are irrelevant.

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